Dota2 · resolved market
Aurora to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb23ccc94c2e55fe22efc10c87ac894371e0a6d27780c512240002c061112af59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e9…eedebacked No | 49c | 5,796$2,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,960.55 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…b6efbacked Yes | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 281 | 59.8%168 W · 113 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd892…f6d9backed Yes | 58c | 3,372$1,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,955.81 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 3,134$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.16 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 48c | 2,299$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.85 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c72…7e7ebacked No | 45c | 2,094$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,148.15 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed No | 43c | 2,071$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.11 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Yes | 65c | 2,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 51c | 1,074$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.68 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e0…6ec6backed Yes | 59c | 853.56$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yes | 42c | 606.5$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.48 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Yes | 61c | 477.72$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.9 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 61c | 456.24$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.68 | 440 | 49.3%217 W · 223 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Yes | 60c | 417.83$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.04 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked No | 42c | 411.58$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.72 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…946bbacked Yes | 58c | 400$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 210 | 43.8%92 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Yes | 60c | 390.33$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.83 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked No | 51c | 366.92$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.86 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked No | 47c | 289.97$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.69 | 162 | 43.2%70 W · 92 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 35c | 280.32$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.9 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 278.66$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.2 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Yes | 60c | 259.52$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.3 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…8024backed No | 29c | 213.19$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.36 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked No | 31c | 206.64$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.58 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed No | 49c | 204.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x952d…ab8abacked No | 50c | 196.31$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.85 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…3cc3backed Yes | 53c | 189.91$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe705…f910backed No | 44c | 187.79$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.16 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 63c | 182.38$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.28 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Yes | 66c | 174.12$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.7 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 33c | 163.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.7 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 61c | 161$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f64…9ca2backed Yes | 72c | 139.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed No | 49c | 130.01$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.31 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 69c | 129.75$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.44 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes | 50c | 120.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 117 | 33.3%39 W · 78 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 40c | 112.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.12 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e2…07e8backed No | 55c | 91.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…b386backed Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 321 | 54.8%176 W · 145 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 53c | 81.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Yes | 32c | 79.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 311 | 26%81 W · 230 L | -17.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…2effbacked No | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Yes | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…1d65backed No | 50c | 58.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff8…3a15backed Yes | 34c | 58.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +5.6wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +44%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…9884backed Yes | 39c | 57.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed No | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 71c | 56.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 207 | 63.3%131 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff70…78abbacked No | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69c4…ea1ebacked Yes | 70c | 49.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Yes | 53c | 49.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 55c | 42.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Yes | 64c | 42.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yes | 32c | 40.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 444 | 74.8%332 W · 112 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a42…6338backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 42c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 43c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…bfdfbacked Yes | 57c | 27.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed No | 51c | 27.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…bcb1backed Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4358…3e76backed No | 49c | 24.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Yes | 60c | 18.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 377 | 54.9%207 W · 170 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aurora to win 2-0?this page
- Nigma Galaxy to win 2-0?No won
- Nigma Galaxy vs Aurora: Draw (1-1)?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.