Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3686cf7d842cae9470063f20db6b430316a7318e90bb6f23bb5562290117fcb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 2c | 1,790$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 77c | 603.83$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.23 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 478.33$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.9 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 72c | 441.5$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.74 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 40c | 409.4$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.32 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 361.18$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.93 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba7…8732backed Yes | 34c | 255.62$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 36c | 254.01$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.77 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…b9c8backed No | 67c | 224.17$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.17 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 221.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 26c | 210.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb0…1a72backed Yes | 33c | 191.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.78 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 28c | 156.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 153$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 139.72$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 41c | 138.53$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 61c | 137.59$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.46 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…298bbacked No | 77c | 129.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 70c | 119.97$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed Yes | 75c | 119.46$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.53 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 78c | 116.1$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 21c | 101$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 21c | 98.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 74c | 92.4$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 72c | 87.57$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 23c | 87.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 25c | 87.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 86.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 86.44$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 62c | 82.72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…a4f4backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 23c | 74.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 63.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 71c | 63.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 60.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 19c | 59.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 75c | 58.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 55c | 56.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 24c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 56c | 50.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 26c | 47.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25cd…0a0dbacked Yes | 26c | 47.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 28c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 41.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 41.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ce…10bfbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 28c | 39.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 70c | 36.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 35.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 37c | 34.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 41c | 31.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x828a…9f87backed No | 77c | 31.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…4c85backed Yes | 72c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes | 66c | 30.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 29.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 68c | 27.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 65c | 25.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfafa…619abacked Yes | 78c | 25.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 21.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 18.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 73c | 18.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 75c | 18.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked No | 66c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 14.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.