Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3498dddb6423ea99fcb091509f2416c441c3022e05bc076a17b3317b7cbd75c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 39c | 4,144$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,544.46 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 61c | 2,963$1,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,803.19 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 29c | 956.32$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.36 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 64c | 908.37$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 35c | 706.73$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.6 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 50c | 455.79$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.8 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 435.32$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.74 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 50c | 341.41$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.34 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 294$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 60c | 290$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.19 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 267.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 58c | 256.47$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.47 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 247.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed No | 62c | 236$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.32 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 230$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 43c | 228.22$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.08 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 224.63$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.37 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 48c | 220.7$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.77 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 46c | 211.59$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.61 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 47c | 197.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.6 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 48c | 186.01$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.89 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 48c | 185.16$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.98 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 168.87$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.68 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f1…eed4backed Yes | 58c | 156.83$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.01 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…895cbacked Yes | 58c | 156.8$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 63c | 150$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 75c | 143$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.65 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 135$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 47c | 134.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.51 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 124.8$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 46c | 121.14$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 121.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 47c | 119$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.52 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 45c | 105.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 25c | 104$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed Yes | 67c | 102.77$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 49c | 99.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 79c | 99.09$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.29 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 61c | 95.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 67c | 92.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 63c | 90$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 46c | 89.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 88.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 44c | 88.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 48c | 88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf7…a1abbacked Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 52c | 71.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 70.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 71c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 69.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 22c | 67.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 73c | 67.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 62c | 66.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 50c | 64.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 67c | 63.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 50c | 61.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 59.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 59c | 57.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 49c | 57.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 74c | 55.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 31c | 55.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6961…511bbacked Yes | 66c | 54.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 53c | 49.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked No | 53c | 48.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14c…5bdebacked Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 27c | 44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 43.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 42c | 42.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 59c | 42.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 53c | 42.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 55c | 41.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…9aeabacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 46c | 39.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 27c | 39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 49c | 36.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 49c | 36.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 50c | 35.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes | 51c | 35.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 57c | 34.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 33.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde37…877fbacked Yes | 46c | 32.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eff…3e5fbacked Yes | 55c | 31.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 54c | 30.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…a2d2backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 29.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 64c | 29.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.