Spread: North Texas Mean Green (-16.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36873d49af3377d7585a7798ec1f55e7bf14bae2a2ad6c684107b97018dce7a1

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: North Texas Mean Greenof North Texas Mean Green, UTSA Roadrunners
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $539,165
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $539,042

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $539,165 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4924…3782backed North Texas Mean Green	47c	387,999$182,656 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$205,342.87	359	45.1%162 W · 197 L	-24.4wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked UTSA Roadrunners	53c	350,000$185,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185,500	896	45.9%411 W · 485 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed UTSA Roadrunners	52c	69,082$35,922 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35,922.42	691	42.8%296 W · 395 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed North Texas Mean Green	47c	61,974$29,128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32,845.97	40	47.5%19 W · 21 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed UTSA Roadrunners	53c	46,501$24,645 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24,645.48	44	54.5%24 W · 20 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed North Texas Mean Green	48c	45,000$21,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23,400	216	36.1%78 W · 138 L	-10.4wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked UTSA Roadrunners	54c	24,479$13,257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,256.84	12,422	49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L	+118.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4366…c73ebacked UTSA Roadrunners	53c	18,200$9,563 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,563.37	73	53.4%39 W · 34 L	+3.6wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x538a…0823backed North Texas Mean Green	47c	11,500$5,405 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,095	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.22per pick	50cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9723…77d8backed North Texas Mean Green	46c	4,116$1,893 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,222.51	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed UTSA Roadrunners	54c	4,000$2,148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,148.02	354	52.3%185 W · 169 L	+17.5wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked UTSA Roadrunners	53c	3,998$2,119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,119.06	1,910	49.6%947 W · 963 L	+30.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked North Texas Mean Green	48c	3,139$1,507 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,632.31	906	45.4%411 W · 495 L	+9.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed North Texas Mean Green	46c	3,091$1,433 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,658.03	87	49.4%43 W · 44 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed North Texas Mean Green	43c	3,000$1,290 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,710	397	44.8%178 W · 219 L	+9.4wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed UTSA Roadrunners	52c	3,000$1,560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,560	170	50.6%86 W · 84 L	+4.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked North Texas Mean Green	48c	1,042$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$541.67	4,382	40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L	+23.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked UTSA Roadrunners	53c	1,013$537 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$536.89	1,436	47.5%682 W · 754 L	-18.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed North Texas Mean Green	48c	998.19$479 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$519.06	2,003	53.7%1,076 W · 927 L	+101.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed UTSA Roadrunners	55c	926.77$506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$506.34	5,553	47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L	+26.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked North Texas Mean Green	48c	833.33$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$433.33	1,667	36.4%607 W · 1,060 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed UTSA Roadrunners	54c	814.81$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440	557	49.2%274 W · 283 L	-7.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed UTSA Roadrunners	53c	700$371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$371	352	43.2%152 W · 200 L	-11.1wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed North Texas Mean Green	48c	520.83$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270.83	441	46.5%205 W · 236 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea81…eeaebacked North Texas Mean Green	46c	500$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270	1,227	27.8%341 W · 886 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed North Texas Mean Green	44c	454.55$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$254.55	1,231	47%578 W · 653 L	-17.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked North Texas Mean Green	47c	432$203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$228.96	754	47.1%355 W · 399 L	+13.2wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed UTSA Roadrunners	52c	430$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.5	267	40.8%109 W · 158 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed North Texas Mean Green	43c	344.19$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196.19	200	46.5%93 W · 107 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed UTSA Roadrunners	54c	300$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162	820	48.2%395 W · 425 L	+6.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed North Texas Mean Green	47c	250$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.5	891	46.2%412 W · 479 L	+9.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed North Texas Mean Green	48c	208$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.16	1,074	47%505 W · 569 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed UTSA Roadrunners	54c	203.7$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	498	49.6%247 W · 251 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea7…657ebacked North Texas Mean Green	48c	175$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.2wins	-0.16per pick	44cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x04b7…7491backed North Texas Mean Green	47c	142$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.26	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked UTSA Roadrunners	53c	127.99$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.41	323	43%139 W · 184 L	-18.5wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-23%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed UTSA Roadrunners	54c	127.11$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.66	974	47.9%467 W · 507 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed North Texas Mean Green	48c	125$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65	3,684	42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L	+32.6wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed UTSA Roadrunners	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	146	54.1%79 W · 67 L	+7.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed North Texas Mean Green	45c	93$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.15	635	51.5%327 W · 308 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked North Texas Mean Green	44c	91.95$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.49	4,552	50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L	-36.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed UTSA Roadrunners	63c	51.55$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.38	198	48%95 W · 103 L	-4.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed North Texas Mean Green	48c	50$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26	643	22.9%147 W · 496 L	-17.1wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf01…b14cbacked UTSA Roadrunners	54c	40$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	40	55%22 W · 18 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8104…3128backed UTSA Roadrunners	55c	39.98$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.99	25	60%15 W · 10 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed UTSA Roadrunners	53c	39.6$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.99	210	59.5%125 W · 85 L	+17.9wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed UTSA Roadrunners	55c	38.51$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.18	81	40.7%33 W · 48 L	-5.8wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x94f9…26afbacked UTSA Roadrunners	55c	36.38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9487…54bbbacked North Texas Mean Green	43c	34.9$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.89	362	48.6%176 W · 186 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed North Texas Mean Green	44c	32.46$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.04	668	31.4%210 W · 458 L	-43.1wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-23%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1de6…fdb3backed UTSA Roadrunners	53c	31.87$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.89	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d72…faf7backed North Texas Mean Green	45c	25.48$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.05	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	51cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff7…9ab6backed UTSA Roadrunners	55c	22.42$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.35	85	56.5%48 W · 37 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d74…bb57backed UTSA Roadrunners	56c	19.27$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.79	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbff8…7073backed UTSA Roadrunners	56c	18$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-4.1wins	-0.16per pick	47cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: North Texas Mean Green (-16.5)this page
UTSA Roadrunners vs. North Texas Mean GreenNorth Texas Mean Green won
UTSA Roadrunners vs. North Texas Mean Green: O/U 138.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: North Texas Mean Green (-16.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event