TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Celtics vs. Rockets: O/U 214.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,045
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,533

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,045 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbf51…4a30backed Over51c9,804$5,000 inLost-$5,00076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under49c3,879$1,918 inWon+$1,961.059,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under52c3,000$1,550 inWon+$1,45080737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under49c1,479$732 inWon+$747.12,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under49c1,002$491 inWon+$511.025,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under49c489$240 inWon+$249.3921443.9%94 W · 120 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Over50c319.5$160 inLost-$159.7551146.6%238 W · 273 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under56c255.7$143 inWon+$112.664,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under49c172.31$84 inWon+$87.883,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Under51c115.51$59 inWon+$56.666646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Over45c100$45 inLost-$451,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over41c72.43$30 inLost-$30.033,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6533…0f9cbacked Under58c56.9$33 inWon+$23.949358.6%289 W · 204 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa139…f574backed Under61c54$33 inWon+$21.063847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3154…67f5backed Over50c40$20 inLost-$20977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfa6…4eb6backed Over51c39.22$20 inLost-$202035%7 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7a33…7909backed Over51c39.22$20 inLost-$202751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over44c38.48$17 inLost-$16.873,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9487…54bbbacked Over42c35.71$15 inLost-$1516935.5%60 W · 109 L-16.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-22.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Under61c33.92$21 inWon+$13.0857657.8%333 W · 243 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over48c30.12$14 inLost-$14.462,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe544…ab18backed Over42c29.74$13 inLost-$12.637851.3%40 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over48c26$12 inLost-$12.3539041%160 W · 230 L-32.8wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.