TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Rockets (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Celticsof Rockets, Celtics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,935
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,938

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,935 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc58d…9373backed Celtics49c2,200$1,078 inWon+$1,12228241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Rockets51c2,000$1,020 inLost-$1,02087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Celtics41c997.67$409 inWon+$588.646,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Celtics39c720.97$281 inWon+$439.6321443.9%94 W · 120 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Celtics42c435$183 inWon+$252.31,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7be1…200ebacked Rockets60c431.67$259 inLost-$25936449.7%181 W · 183 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Rockets56c426.73$240 inLost-$239.848,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Rockets59c402.5$237 inLost-$237.453,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Celtics48c327.67$157 inWon+$170.324,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Rockets66c303.47$200 inLost-$2001,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Celtics44c200$88 inWon+$11280744.1%356 W · 451 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f0…299bbacked Celtics37c196.78$73 inWon+$123.971361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+39.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Rockets60c166.67$100 inLost-$10072250.6%365 W · 357 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Celtics35c107.3$38 inWon+$69.293,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Rockets51c100$51 inLost-$5191148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97f6…66e2backed Rockets51c100$51 inLost-$5120149.8%100 W · 101 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Celtics44c100$44 inWon+$5635444.6%158 W · 196 L+1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Rockets61c90.16$55 inLost-$551,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Rockets58c78.14$45 inLost-$44.954,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Rockets62c75$47 inLost-$46.53,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Rockets64c70$45 inLost-$44.833360.4%201 W · 132 L+17.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Rockets50c64.12$32 inLost-$32.062,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x635b…195dbacked Celtics50c61$31 inWon+$30.538252.4%200 W · 182 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd227…0e69backed Rockets61c57.38$35 inLost-$355869%40 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Celtics49c55$27 inWon+$28.015,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c94…1b47backed Rockets60c50$30 inLost-$309050%45 W · 45 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b7f…7aecbacked Rockets61c49.18$30 inLost-$3043647.9%209 W · 227 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf628…ba6fbacked Celtics44c41.05$18 inWon+$22.998440.5%34 W · 50 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Rockets59c38.9$23 inLost-$22.943,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6533…0f9cbacked Rockets61c36.07$22 inLost-$2249358.6%289 W · 204 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Celtics51c35$18 inWon+$17.1595452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Rockets59c33.95$20 inLost-$20.022,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1600…9236backed Rockets53c20$11 inLost-$10.52065%13 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Rockets63c17.45$11 inLost-$10.9940849%200 W · 208 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.