NBA · resolved market

Celtics vs. Rockets: O/U 216.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5075da73dc073395fac25dfacfb39d593fd6830fc42fdb957d2a88a2afc17f1

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 5, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $35,467
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $35,826

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,467 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over	46c	8,108$3,758 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,758.1	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Under	55c	7,241$3,983 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,258.58	290	55.5%161 W · 129 L	+15.8wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ea2…9ad4backed Under	53c	4,714$2,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,214.08	128	55.5%71 W · 57 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over	45c	3,502$1,576 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,575.9	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	12c	3,141$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374.28	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Under	52c	2,454$1,276 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,178.01	266	37.2%99 W · 167 L	-10.5wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	47c	2,431$1,154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,154.28	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Over	48c	1,912$916 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$916.35	583	47%274 W · 309 L	-12.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under	52c	1,717$893 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$824.16	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cbf…4ec0backed Under	50c	1,237$618 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$618.88	58	58.6%34 W · 24 L	+4.2wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	48c	1,125$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540.18	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4e1abacked Over	45c	1,064$479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479.01	151	47%71 W · 80 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Under	52c	1,000$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480	416	52.2%217 W · 199 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	49c	920.38$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.03	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe544…ab18backed Over	48c	801.24$385 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$384.6	78	51.3%40 W · 38 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over	48c	799.99$384 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$383.99	843	42.9%362 W · 481 L	-39.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae60…1f06backed Over	49c	750.31$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.65	74	48.6%36 W · 38 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b5e…83f8backed Under	53c	645.07$342 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$303.18	116	56.9%66 W · 50 L	+10.6wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+17%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9030…4a23backed Under	52c	615.38$320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$295.38	78	62.8%49 W · 29 L	+4.0wins	+0.05per pick	58cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under	55c	515.15$283 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$232.22	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over	47c	499.76$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.05	214	43.9%94 W · 120 L	+7.8wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over	43c	465.12$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Under	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	249	46.6%116 W · 133 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	410	52%213 W · 197 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4b2…c5cdbacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+46.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over	50c	158.32$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.05	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	48c	130.43$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.08	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over	50c	122.43$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.54	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a20…8248backed Over	36c	121$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.56	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47e5…9b73backed Under	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	425	51.3%218 W · 207 L	-7.2wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb82…c668backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	47cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd44d…389dbacked Under	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	413	54%223 W · 190 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aff…c91bbacked Over	36c	95$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.2	90	50%45 W · 45 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over	49c	81.87$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.09	1,264	45.8%579 W · 685 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75cd…61a6backed Over	48c	78.23$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.35	56	42.9%24 W · 32 L	-4.4wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over	39c	77.53$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.52	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Under	52c	53.34$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.6	950	47.2%448 W · 502 L	-28.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ed4…620ebacked Under	52c	52.25$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.08	311	55%171 W · 140 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under	75c	43.74$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.89	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bba…4c7abacked Over	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc816…4b74backed Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	64	53.1%34 W · 30 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc653…bb8cbacked Under	51c	31.43$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.4	409	60.6%248 W · 161 L	+7.2wins	+0.02per pick	59cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf5f…fc90backed Over	44c	30$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-2.4wins	-0.15per pick	46cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x11a4…bbe8backed Under	64c	28$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.08	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-2.4wins	-0.13per pick	52cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xce96…ff5cbacked Under	64c	28$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.08	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b3a…1440backed Under	50c	26.4$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.2	65	41.5%27 W · 38 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x95be…9968backed Under	57c	26.32$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.32	335	52.8%177 W · 158 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under	52c	26.12$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.54	1,003	51%512 W · 491 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x143d…5bc4backed Under	64c	26$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.36	58	43.1%25 W · 33 L	-4.6wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e78…70c7backed Under	52c	25.17$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.08	329	52.9%174 W · 155 L	+9.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5b…6e14backed Over	51c	24.51$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	58	53.4%31 W · 27 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ecd…b2c0backed Under	64c	23$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.28	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-5.5wins	-0.19per pick	53cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb665…0a43backed Under	53c	22.52$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.62	52	34.6%18 W · 34 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1315…d32ebacked Under	64c	21$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.56	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-2.8wins	-0.12per pick	56cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7773…f936backed Under	64c	21$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.56	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-5.1wins	-0.30per pick	54cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x4ee3…bf37backed Over	52c	20.83$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.83	74	45.9%34 W · 40 L	-4.9wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Under	62c	19.35$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.36	576	57.8%333 W · 243 L	+13.0wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…67b1backed Under	64c	18$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.48	39	56.4%22 W · 17 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f57…6d41backed Under	64c	18$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.48	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x194f…81b6backed Under	64c	18$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.48	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under	60c	17$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.85	2,045	48.4%990 W · 1,055 L	-30.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under	76c	13.78$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.25	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Celtics vs. Rockets: O/U 216.5this page
1H Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Celtics won
Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 5.5No won
Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
Celtics vs. RocketsCeltics won
Celtics vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
Celtics vs. Rockets: O/U 209.5Under won
Celtics vs. Rockets: O/U 210.5Under won
Celtics vs. Rockets: O/U 211.5Under won
Celtics vs. Rockets: O/U 213.5Under won
Celtics vs. Rockets: O/U 214.5Under won
Celtics vs. Rockets: O/U 215.5Under won
Celtics vs. Rockets: O/U 217.5Under won
Derrick White: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
Jabari Smith Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 4.5No won
Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
Sam Hauser: Points O/U 10.5No won
Spread: Rockets (-4.5)Celtics won
Spread: Rockets (-5.5)Celtics won
Spread: Rockets (-6.5)Celtics won
Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Celtics won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Celtics vs. Rockets: O/U 216.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event