NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Rockets: O/U 209.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7afa52e338764efa6dde810dd20869148b46c6fdd5a9709db959278b6689d1f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 5,872$2,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,235.38 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Over | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,240 | 310 | 44.8%139 W · 171 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Under | 45c | 3,845$1,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,111.69 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…0fb2backed Over | 55c | 3,233$1,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,778 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 47c | 3,109$1,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,647.86 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…b346backed Over | 54c | 1,129$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.8 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Over | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 10c | 665.09$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 226 | 48.2%109 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 33c | 460$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.8 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 44c | 401.86$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.99 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 8c | 399.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…e82ebacked Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb781…0adcbacked Over | 54c | 289.13$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.13 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e5…e2f4backed Over | 27c | 271.51$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.29 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 53c | 214.52$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.81 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e7…3182backed Over | 15c | 172.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 53c | 167.66$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.46 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Over | 53c | 94.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 162 | 61.7%100 W · 62 L | +15.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcf…47ddbacked Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66e6…7dc4backed Under | 50c | 86.22$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Under | 50c | 71.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Over | 54c | 57.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…4ec0backed Under | 46c | 57.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 57.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb87…4611backed Over | 56c | 52.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e70…7214backed Over | 56c | 50.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 53c | 47.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 53c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…1094backed Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 55c | 27.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Under | 47c | 25.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…84c5backed Over | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -8.2wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 51c | 21.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Under | 49c | 21.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 251 | 43%108 W · 143 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Rockets: O/U 209.5this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Celtics won
- Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Celtics vs. RocketsCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Rockets: O/U 210.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Rockets: O/U 211.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Rockets: O/U 213.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Rockets: O/U 214.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Rockets: O/U 215.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Rockets: O/U 216.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Rockets: O/U 217.5Under won
- Derrick White: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Sam Hauser: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Rockets (-5.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Rockets (-6.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.