Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36e8a2f88bc72d087ffa47f0ef90bfbf6b791ef9fc24bbab1adc4df0d6d87ab2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 46c | 1,581$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 52c | 925.38$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.04 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 49c | 840.45$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.48 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 29c | 691.89$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.36 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 59c | 674.87$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.38 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 54c | 551.33$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.33 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 40c | 530.36$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 38c | 520.75$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.23 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 33c | 520.62$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 54c | 499.99$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.17 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed No | 22c | 482.31$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.79 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 48c | 455.24$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.37 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 453.89$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.16 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 37c | 350$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 57c | 349.22$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.97 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 336.43$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 69c | 300.21$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.91 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 35c | 299.79$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.52 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 294.76$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.88 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 68c | 266.43$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.01 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 50c | 259.39$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 44c | 229.56$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.51 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…1423backed Yes | 76c | 210.94$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.83 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 64c | 203.13$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.13 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 47c | 200$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.57 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 62c | 193.16$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.64 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 63c | 181.35$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 63c | 179.77$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 45c | 177.9$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 71c | 160$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 57c | 159.16$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 42c | 142.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 38c | 140.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 52c | 133.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.56 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 52c | 127$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 53c | 126.91$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 53c | 126.38$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 70c | 122.2$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd79…989ebacked No | 51c | 119.7$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.55 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 116.91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.29 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 41c | 115$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 57c | 106.42$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 102$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 64c | 100.08$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 14c | 97.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 69c | 94.27$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 42c | 92.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 58c | 87.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 53c | 81.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 26c | 81.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 48c | 81.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 41c | 76.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 62c | 75.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6c…e2d8backed Yes | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 38c | 74.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked Yes | 73c | 73.54$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 73.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 69c | 72.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…e9f5backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 20c | 70.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 40c | 69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 72c | 62.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 45c | 62.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 72c | 61.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 67c | 61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 63c | 59.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 53c | 58.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 43c | 57.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 55c | 57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 42c | 53.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 49c | 53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 34c | 52.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 48c | 49.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 60c | 48.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb2…d640backed No | 54c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 51c | 45.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 35c | 44.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 40c | 43.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 51c | 42.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 71c | 42.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…7e54backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 51c | 37.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 61c | 36.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 57c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 56c | 35.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x867a…91adbacked Yes | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 64c | 33.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed Yes | 55c | 31.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 46c | 30.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.