Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x822d696ca5566c9f1c35851077148a9e314f7047b7c11f9f7c251299b13d4ae3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked No | 65c | 3,194$2,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.22 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 34c | 1,600$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 36c | 1,120$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 42c | 752.26$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.83 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 627.11$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 24c | 608.06$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.92 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed No | 64c | 603.63$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.39 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 554.47$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.34 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 26c | 554$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.54 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 35c | 468.82$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.09 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 453.2$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.88 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 450.03$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.88 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 30c | 433.41$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.14 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 34c | 385.13$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.79 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 361.48$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.06 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 17c | 355.52$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3669…e0f0backed No | 55c | 318.37$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 318.05$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.03 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 31c | 313.81$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 73c | 289.89$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 31c | 243.2$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 238.19$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.63 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…1423backed No | 78c | 228.58$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 228.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x717f…3fb1backed Yes | 29c | 218.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.93 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed Yes | 31c | 205.42$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.86 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 193.59$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 189$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 69c | 184.08$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.06 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 36c | 169$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 149.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 34c | 147.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 135$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 130.71$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 35c | 125.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 38c | 123.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 116.9$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 111$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 32c | 108.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 104$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 74c | 103.94$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 103.87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 100.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked No | 69c | 99.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 65c | 97.6$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 96.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 27c | 86.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 34c | 85.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 68c | 84.79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 31c | 82.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 80.79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 69c | 80.44$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 70.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 72c | 65.01$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 37c | 65.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 37c | 62.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 35c | 58.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 34c | 58.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed No | 65c | 58.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 25c | 58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed No | 68c | 57.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 32c | 57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 27c | 54.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 38c | 54.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 72c | 53.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked No | 76c | 49.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 72c | 49.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 27c | 48.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 31c | 48.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 42c | 47.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 42c | 47.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 46.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 69c | 45.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 66c | 45.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 64c | 43.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 33c | 43.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 29c | 42.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked Yes | 33c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 40.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 69c | 39.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 67c | 39.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 33c | 36.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 66c | 35.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 32.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 32c | 31.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 36c | 30.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 68c | 30.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.