Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36f20a5dfc5008d266aa35879bd9eee9ea2b640e513cfe8cbe9d5243ea5f24d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 57c | 697.04$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.04 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 337.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 294.33$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 285.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.87 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 265.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 5c | 249.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 69c | 207$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.77 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 178.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 58c | 159.5$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 148.6$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.01 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 144$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 53c | 115.14$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 37c | 104.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 102.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379f…7d70backed No | 71c | 99.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 56c | 95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 54c | 86.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 80.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 80c | 76.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 33c | 73.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 57c | 71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 65c | 70$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 65c | 70$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 40c | 57.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 58c | 51.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 56c | 50.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…11f4backed Yes | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 65c | 48.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 43.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 48c | 41.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 42c | 38.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 32c | 38.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…e1d0backed No | 79c | 36.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 52c | 35.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 46c | 35.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 34.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf0…5951backed No | 61c | 32.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 31.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 35c | 30.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 39c | 30.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 53c | 25.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 22.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 80c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a02…7c94backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…e968backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 18.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 60c | 18.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x273f…ef14backed Yes | 59c | 18.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked Yes | 77c | 15.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.