Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6600b871128f9b56556f03c77c86a98e8366e0e6ae5fecba6ce39bef3021ebd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 45c | 481.33$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.42 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 334.53$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.63 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 312.47$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.9 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 33c | 299.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 9c | 276.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 52c | 245.62$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.18 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 148.6$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe4…a1a5backed No | 71c | 141.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 37c | 135.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 128.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 22c | 123.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 34c | 122.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 122.6$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 108.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 100.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 46c | 92.15$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 57c | 90.53$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 75.36$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 64.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3c…c6d8backed No | 57c | 64.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 54c | 63.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 63.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 57c | 61.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffcd…1666backed No | 65c | 60.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 69c | 59.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 53.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 57c | 52.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked Yes | 37c | 51.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…11f4backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 78c | 48.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 50c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 43c | 42.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…4f19backed No | 54c | 40.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…73e3backed No | 60c | 39.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 52c | 37.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 45c | 37.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…0919backed Yes | 41c | 35.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 34c | 34.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 66c | 34.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 33.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 72c | 33.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 62c | 32.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 44c | 31.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 43c | 30.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 38c | 27.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 67c | 22.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 65c | 20.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 20.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…89e6backed No | 65c | 20.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 68c | 19.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 18.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 65c | 15.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.