MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36ff4932d8a08592de7e48d8bfab13a7d091e47b39511ffe93498d2a47a5e16b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Atlanta Braves, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Atlanta Braves | 48c | 9,042$4,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,701.8 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…82c6backed Texas Rangers | 52c | 9,000$4,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,679.99 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Texas Rangers | 47c | 1,604$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.92 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Atlanta Braves | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…f8a3backed Atlanta Braves | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 302 | 42.4%128 W · 174 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Texas Rangers | 52c | 393.99$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.88 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers | 52c | 375.35$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.11 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Atlanta Braves | 48c | 300.5$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.89 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Texas Rangers | 52c | 238.32$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.93 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Atlanta Braves | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Texas Rangers | 54c | 186.94$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.95 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 79c | 167.4$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 50c | 144.21$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.96 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Atlanta Braves | 77c | 143.32$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Atlanta Braves | 48c | 108.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…d412backed Atlanta Braves | 49c | 96.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 175 | 57.1%100 W · 75 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Texas Rangers | 54c | 81.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Texas Rangers | 52c | 81.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Atlanta Braves | 55c | 74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Texas Rangers | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Texas Rangers | 48c | 63.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Atlanta Braves | 48c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a2…3c41backed Atlanta Braves | 52c | 54.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 158 | 57%90 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Atlanta Braves | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Texas Rangers | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 46c | 46.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Texas Rangers | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf4…348dbacked Atlanta Braves | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…28f3backed Atlanta Braves | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Texas Rangers | 50c | 38.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3551…a581backed Texas Rangers | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Texas Rangers | 30c | 37.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…3a5cbacked Atlanta Braves | 48c | 32.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3c…8290backed Atlanta Braves | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Atlanta Braves | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…3927backed Texas Rangers | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Texas Rangers | 49c | 23.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Texas Rangers | 52c | 22.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Texas Rangers | 71c | 21.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Atlanta Braves | 73c | 20.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6d…aeb3backed Texas Rangers | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Texas Rangers vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Texas Rangers vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.