MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3744ea1b7b8d01ed986bcbaab6efd3bab75deda9daa07b55f24c39a0cecafc8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Angels | 76c | 1,201$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.67 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 28c | 1,135$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.76 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Baltimore Orioles | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Los Angeles Angels | 74c | 895.05$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.34 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Baltimore Orioles | 75c | 850$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Los Angeles Angels | 72c | 685.25$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.37 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Baltimore Orioles | 28c | 392.88$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.88 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels | 41c | 367.43$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.68 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 73c | 210.17$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.42 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Baltimore Orioles | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 75c | 193.69$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 72c | 160$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Los Angeles Angels | 25c | 147$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Baltimore Orioles | 28c | 137.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.82 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 26c | 131.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.04 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Los Angeles Angels | 69c | 87.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Baltimore Orioles | 28c | 83.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.07 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 25c | 75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Baltimore Orioles | 29c | 52.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Los Angeles Angels | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Los Angeles Angels | 71c | 40.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d4…7b65backed Baltimore Orioles | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Baltimore Orioles | 74c | 37.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Angels | 69c | 20.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Los Angeles Angels | 77c | 19.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 73c | 18.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Los Angeles Angels | 78c | 16.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Los Angeles Angels | 79c | 16.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Los Angeles Angels | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.