MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x500c121b119ddd03e209174ba10328f0edd3e90a0751354bdb46e7e2f3b0c144
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $135,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 53c | 120,754$64,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63,999.62 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 47c | 119,969$56,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63,583.37 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 66c | 4,990$3,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,689.85 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…694fbacked Over | 34c | 2,410$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.81 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -5.0wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 1,563$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.67 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 30c | 1,260$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.53 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 66c | 1,195$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.1 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 12c | 792.73$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.26 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 53c | 653$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.53 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 47c | 637$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.61 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 29c | 547.9$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.24 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 47c | 531.9$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.91 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 47c | 496.9$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.36 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 34c | 416.82$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.05 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…b21cbacked Under | 56c | 337.43$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.47 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.15 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…048bbacked Over | 49c | 315$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.35 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…44d6backed Under | 67c | 311.22$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.7 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 17c | 310.22$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 41c | 300$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.25 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…c0f0backed Under | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 47c | 212.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Over | 8c | 202$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 47c | 159.55$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.56 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 53c | 151.06$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 59c | 149.31$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 34c | 145.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 33c | 141.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 66c | 110.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Over | 19c | 97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Under | 64c | 88.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 48c | 80.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 48c | 80.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 66c | 71.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 32c | 71.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 47c | 68.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 29c | 65.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1d…9332backed Over | 29c | 51.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 32c | 47.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 68c | 44.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Under | 47c | 40.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 54c | 39.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Over | 56c | 37.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 44c | 37.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…d4b1backed Over | 53c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x829a…a748backed Under | 48c | 30.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 187 | 51.9%97 W · 90 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 47c | 25.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…4e4fbacked Under | 66c | 22.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 47c | 22.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.