MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04086f3f8e2e93ccb5d07c19d9207e50d7f29d924fc150d7b29dbbbefdeea5f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 30c | 3,523$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,453.42 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 49c | 3,434$1,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Angels | 68c | 2,801$1,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,913.23 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 2,579$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,368.6 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Angels | 72c | 1,259$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.57 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 1,006$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.2 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 813.95$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.95 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 675$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.5 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 648.89$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.31 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 395.26$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.07 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 340$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.6 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Los Angeles Angels | 63c | 337.44$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.59 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 328.85$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.6 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 328.85$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.6 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Los Angeles Angels | 69c | 315.97$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.83 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 291.88$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.8 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 210.52$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.52 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 200.57$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.95 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Los Angeles Angels | 8c | 199.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Baltimore Orioles | 27c | 187.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.6 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 179$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.98 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Baltimore Orioles | 68c | 147$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 137.97$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.16 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9950…1432backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 132.39$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.71 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Los Angeles Angels | 75c | 123.19$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 121.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.65 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Los Angeles Angels | 64c | 120$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Los Angeles Angels | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 104.08$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Los Angeles Angels | 63c | 102.42$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Baltimore Orioles | 75c | 94.37$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 90.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 34c | 88.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 65c | 87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Los Angeles Angels | 14c | 83.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 213 | 43.2%92 W · 121 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…44c3backed Los Angeles Angels | 63c | 77.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 66.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Los Angeles Angels | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Los Angeles Angels | 51c | 54.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 52.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Los Angeles Angels | 72c | 52.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Baltimore Orioles | 21c | 51.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 48.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0af…bfd0backed Los Angeles Angels | 33c | 46.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Los Angeles Angels | 51c | 45.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 44.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 43.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Los Angeles Angels | 53c | 33.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 32.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 29.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2d…2be7backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 69c | 21.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.