Tennis · resolved market
Almaty Open: Corentin Moutet vs Daniil Medvedev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x376afc2572d42233e62d5e7e5c3b8ad7097d9c3812ce94658786424666329bf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Medvedevof Moutet, Medvedev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $165,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $171,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7606…2836backed Moutet | 39c | 122,485$48,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,088.6 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Medvedev | 60c | 81,566$48,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,816 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Medvedev | 62c | 22,054$13,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,389.6 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Medvedev | 67c | 15,465$10,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,152.87 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Moutet | 37c | 7,927$2,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,956.2 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Medvedev | 63c | 5,906$3,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,203.47 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Medvedev | 66c | 5,890$3,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,020.27 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Medvedev | 59c | 5,000$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050 | 672 | 49.6%333 W · 339 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Moutet | 33c | 1,800$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.75 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…5471backed Medvedev | 70c | 1,578$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.95 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +182.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Medvedev | 56c | 1,500$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3b99backed Moutet | 30c | 1,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Moutet | 27c | 1,485$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.01 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283d…0dadbacked Medvedev | 69c | 1,317$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.94 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Medvedev | 71c | 1,183$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.15 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Moutet | 40c | 1,057$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.9 | 1,206 | 49%591 W · 615 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Moutet | 28c | 999.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 365 | 40.8%149 W · 216 L | -13.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…392cbacked Moutet | 30c | 833.33$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Medvedev | 62c | 800$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Moutet | 29c | 549.46$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.65 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Medvedev | 64c | 527.09$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.52 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Medvedev | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Medvedev | 70c | 431.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.48 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Medvedev | 73c | 415.59$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.21 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…f48dbacked Medvedev | 59c | 378.4$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.92 | 320 | 50%160 W · 160 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Moutet | 30c | 368.16$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 650 | 40%260 W · 390 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Moutet | 41c | 367.07$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Moutet | 27c | 363.27$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.81 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Moutet | 37c | 356.44$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.22 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2d…82f1backed Moutet | 31c | 332.26$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc276…c2d9backed Medvedev | 63c | 321.99$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.91 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Moutet | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 401 | 41.9%168 W · 233 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Medvedev | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Medvedev | 70c | 238.73$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.11 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Medvedev | 72c | 208.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 202 | 57.4%116 W · 86 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…7252backed Moutet | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…5aeebacked Moutet | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -7.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Medvedev | 65c | 190$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Medvedev | 79c | 182.4$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Medvedev | 65c | 153.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Medvedev | 60c | 152.85$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Moutet | 31c | 150.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 313 | 39.9%125 W · 188 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Moutet | 28c | 149.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Medvedev | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Moutet | 30c | 135.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Medvedev | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Moutet | 35c | 117$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Moutet | 27c | 101.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43c3…d618backed Medvedev | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Moutet | 30c | 97.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 2,339 | 46.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…e758backed Moutet | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Moutet | 24c | 82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf2…85b7backed Medvedev | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…52f7backed Medvedev | 73c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5a…725ebacked Medvedev | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Medvedev | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Moutet | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Medvedev | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Medvedev | 74c | 49.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…8f9abacked Medvedev | 66c | 42.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4692…0feebacked Moutet | 32c | 38.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Medvedev | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Moutet | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…333bbacked Medvedev | 72c | 34.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Medvedev | 68c | 31.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…0a16backed Medvedev | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 270 | 58.1%157 W · 113 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Medvedev | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3306…9687backed Medvedev | 54c | 18.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.