TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Euroleague · resolved market

Shanxi Loongs vs. Zhejiang Lions

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Zhejiang Lionsof Shanxi Loongs, Zhejiang Lions
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$119,923
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$138,152

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,923 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Euroleague
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x799c…bcefbacked Zhejiang Lions65c13,950$9,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,950.341283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick72cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7120…7c4ebacked Shanxi Loongs11c7,873$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.236116.4%10 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-60.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Shanxi Loongs40c4,705$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,889.8424430.3%74 W · 170 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Shanxi Loongs43c4,666$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,998.9213545.9%62 W · 73 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0de…8048backed Zhejiang Lions64c4,515$2,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,643.761662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Zhejiang Lions61c3,906$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,505.95360.4%32 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Shanxi Loongs27c3,672$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.7136939.8%147 W · 222 L+1.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Shanxi Loongs23c3,579$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.8716828.6%48 W · 120 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Shanxi Loongs26c3,500$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9106346%29 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79bd…5c31backed Shanxi Loongs38c2,895$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd746…1b6dbacked Zhejiang Lions40c2,485$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,495.572568%17 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+43.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x659f…c105backed Shanxi Loongs21c2,455$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.961118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-57.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Shanxi Loongs55c2,439$1,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,337.074344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d16…821abacked Zhejiang Lions66c2,210$1,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.591656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Shanxi Loongs41c1,592$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.371942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Zhejiang Lions74c1,431$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.2837052.7%195 W · 175 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Shanxi Loongs41c1,006$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.065230.8%16 W · 36 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Shanxi Loongs4c1,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.631651.6%163 W · 153 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Zhejiang Lions33c972.99$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.862737%10 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Zhejiang Lions63c912.07$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.475151%26 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Shanxi Loongs44c878.65$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.417138%27 W · 44 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Zhejiang Lions72c824.81$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.7134344.3%152 W · 191 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f01…0d90backed Shanxi Loongs47c803.34$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.381136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed Zhejiang Lions34c794.71$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.512842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Shanxi Loongs53c684.84$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.4221444.4%95 W · 119 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e8a…a5bcbacked Shanxi Loongs30c668.77$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Shanxi Loongs27c655.82$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.86747.8%32 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe7e…6d00backed Shanxi Loongs11c655.07$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.633735.1%13 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+19.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16bd…ed47backed Zhejiang Lions61c631.33$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.842646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid+70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eff…d516backed Shanxi Loongs17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x089f…fe64backed Zhejiang Lions52c572.2$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Shanxi Loongs36c550$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.52213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Shanxi Loongs48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2402133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked Zhejiang Lions52c499.99$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2401643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49c8…3c52backed Shanxi Loongs63c491.89$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.633342.4%14 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+10.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Shanxi Loongs9c467.75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.497042.9%30 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Shanxi Loongs29c450$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.51241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x300d…780dbacked Shanxi Loongs28c412$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.76520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-65.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99d7…6435backed Zhejiang Lions66c400.65$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.883345.5%15 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-3.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b7e…857ebacked Shanxi Loongs41c353.76$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.04425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbea…5b1abacked Zhejiang Lions57c349.21$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.211855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Shanxi Loongs43c336.42$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.662458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69b9…a5d5backed Zhejiang Lions64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.51838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd4…7401backed Shanxi Loongs25c308$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.393336.4%12 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Shanxi Loongs25c308$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.396137.7%23 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe74…f0f4backed Zhejiang Lions76c300$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98be…ce69backed Shanxi Loongs18c299.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Zhejiang Lions34c298.09$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.094551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0267…7f7ebacked Shanxi Loongs46c285.38$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.21450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e03…8b79backed Zhejiang Lions39c283.71$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+157.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Shanxi Loongs45c266.73$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.35747.4%27 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Shanxi Loongs17c265.65$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.015752.6%30 W · 27 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Shanxi Loongs44c261.36$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1151546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Shanxi Loongs28c254.18$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4743543.7%190 W · 245 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0764…41d1backed Shanxi Loongs50c250$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e88…9b64backed Shanxi Loongs25c246$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Shanxi Loongs20c242.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6421535.8%77 W · 138 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bba…49babacked Shanxi Loongs25c239.9$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Shanxi Loongs20c225.73$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8235234.7%122 W · 230 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa163…3ccbbacked Shanxi Loongs25c225$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.581233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-34.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb0f…b652backed Shanxi Loongs29c225$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.252458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Shanxi Loongs25c225$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.581020%2 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-51.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Shanxi Loongs43c223.41$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.751936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4e4…a2ccbacked Shanxi Loongs69c212.4$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.56757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+49.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x316f…795abacked Shanxi Loongs28c206$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.381435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed Shanxi Loongs28c206$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.382157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed Shanxi Loongs28c206$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.382035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33d5…7146backed Shanxi Loongs28c206$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Shanxi Loongs28c206$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.382748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Shanxi Loongs28c206$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.384045%18 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed Shanxi Loongs28c206$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked Shanxi Loongs28c205.78$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.082528%7 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-41.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed Zhejiang Lions50c202.12$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.081957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Shanxi Loongs18c201.1$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.213220.5%27 W · 105 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb829…4f5ebacked Shanxi Loongs29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-43%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed Shanxi Loongs29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed Shanxi Loongs29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e42…f22abacked Shanxi Loongs29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-64.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Shanxi Loongs29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed Shanxi Loongs29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581650%8 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed Shanxi Loongs29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa440…c249backed Shanxi Loongs29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65e5…0cadbacked Shanxi Loongs29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Zhejiang Lions58c199.11$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.135844.8%26 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Zhejiang Lions58c188.51$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.268453.6%45 W · 39 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+21.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed Shanxi Loongs29c184$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.72560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick27cpaid+95.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbde6…764bbacked Shanxi Loongs29c172.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503060%18 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed Zhejiang Lions48c171.01$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.514245.2%19 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Shanxi Loongs66c168.4$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.142748.1%13 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Shanxi Loongs29c168$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486450%32 W · 32 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc33e…b4b6backed Shanxi Loongs28c160.71$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5d9…da24backed Shanxi Loongs64c156.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-45.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x238d…eb74backed Shanxi Loongs25c155$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed Shanxi Loongs25c154$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.762941.4%12 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Shanxi Loongs28c140$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.83551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c61…fce1backed Shanxi Loongs67c138.09$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8fe…4b50backed Zhejiang Lions73c137.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.12475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+62.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Shanxi Loongs38c136$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.835248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd93d…27a0backed Shanxi Loongs46c134.58$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.142030%6 W · 14 L-4.7wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-42.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x5e16…c494backed Shanxi Loongs27c123.65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.