TailMyPicks
Market

Tennis · resolved market

Hong Kong Tennis Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Juncheng Shang

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Shangof Sonego, Shang
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$168,123
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$172,365

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,123 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d58…9a15backed Sonego17c27,491$4,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,802.724647.8%22 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa28f…d25ebacked Sonego11c14,550$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,567.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Shang75c9,486$7,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,416.982,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5122…8dc7backed Sonego46c7,610$3,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,485450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c38…a15abacked Sonego12c6,903$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Shang71c4,847$3,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,424.62,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed Sonego12c4,095$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50028444.7%127 W · 157 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Shang62c3,336$2,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,269.22,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Sonego52c2,882$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.041,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Sonego13c2,290$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Sonego18c2,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.6558639.6%232 W · 354 L-21.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab6d…b458backed Sonego8c2,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-76.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Shang56c1,440$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.381,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3013…e5b2backed Sonego42c1,216$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.840444.1%178 W · 226 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Shang75c1,028$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.736,79236.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7e5…fe31backed Sonego1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe35e…7754backed Sonego13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d59…ffa8backed Sonego4c999.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Sonego10c999.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Shang58c974.53$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.313852.9%73 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Shang56c929.3$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.3611,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f0d…cce6backed Sonego34c894.56$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33f1…f95fbacked Shang60c828.78$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.78785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.21per pick65cpaid+34.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Shang58c822.14$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.631,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed Sonego6c760.28$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7213844.2%61 W · 77 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x164e…c2a2backed Sonego44c704.66$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3103542.9%15 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e13…670bbacked Sonego44c699.54$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.575164.7%33 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f78…bfcabacked Sonego6c600.6$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.178713.8%12 W · 75 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-59.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Sonego23c526.89$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.6515648.7%76 W · 80 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Sonego44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22029636.8%109 W · 187 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Sonego42c476.43$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20049250.6%249 W · 243 L-25.7wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Shang56c443.32$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.3427944.1%123 W · 156 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc36…1b11backed Sonego5c409.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.63030%9 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-44.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Sonego4c394.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.341565.8%9 W · 147 L-32.4wins-0.21per pick27cpaid-64.6%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Sonego40c388.88$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.5594355.7%525 W · 418 L+22.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Sonego42c379.31$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.3157645.5%262 W · 314 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Shang58c344.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.8323353.2%124 W · 109 L+0.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Shang68c330.24$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.342,15054.1%1,164 W · 986 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5df1…2da7backed Sonego9c328$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.931741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick34cpaid-12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58e4…73f9backed Sonego4c308.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8330741.7%128 W · 179 L-1.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0aa4…dbc5backed Sonego22c304.71$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8112335%43 W · 80 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7bf…b02dbacked Shang57c299.99$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12959165.3%386 W · 205 L-16.9wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Shang74c285.2$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.422236.9%82 W · 140 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Shang80c258.17$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2228139.1%110 W · 171 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…b1b1backed Sonego43c229.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.998243.9%36 W · 46 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Sonego43c225$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7525428%71 W · 183 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x83c8…26f0backed Shang12c209.39$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.5413816.7%23 W · 115 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick11cpaid+46%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51ec…a7b9backed Sonego18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610822.2%24 W · 84 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Shang57c199.99$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861,16144.3%514 W · 647 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7373…22eabacked Shang58c199.96$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.981764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Shang80c195$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e4…5bf6backed Shang58c190$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.820653.4%110 W · 96 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Sonego42c177.58$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742,33946.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L+55.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Sonego25c172.76$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7127627.2%75 W · 201 L-25.2wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-36.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe889…d0c3backed Sonego44c170.45$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7517432.2%56 W · 118 L-15.1wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Sonego9c170$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.74599.6%44 W · 415 L+1.9wins0.00per pick9cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Shang73c155.87$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.292,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Sonego10c151$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.481,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed Sonego49c144.67$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.896159%36 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Sonego11c142.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1531643%136 W · 180 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd951…f30bbacked Shang79c141$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.973745.9%17 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Shang54c125$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.534842.2%147 W · 201 L+12.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e5b…5950backed Shang60c124.84$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.064247.6%20 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf83…915dbacked Sonego42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5064637.2%240 W · 406 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe709…027cbacked Sonego9c118.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.91425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-43.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Sonego19c113.29$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0731434.4%108 W · 206 L-25.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-32.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Sonego48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4859348.9%290 W · 303 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc88d…1da9backed Sonego38c99.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387934.2%27 W · 52 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78ff…9b95backed Sonego43c93.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ae…1464backed Sonego27c74.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201650%8 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe48c…163abacked Sonego50c70.1$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356250%31 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4580…16e3backed Sonego35c67.75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Shang61c65.66$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.661,63955.1%903 W · 736 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0af…5490backed Sonego42c61.9$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70a1…978abacked Sonego42c59.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2588446.8%414 W · 470 L+3.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80e2…9ff7backed Sonego44c56.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254438.6%17 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb83f…b17ebacked Sonego41c56.22$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2312451.6%64 W · 60 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa42b…45d2backed Shang79c54.58$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.464358.1%25 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e4f…243cbacked Shang57c52$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.361662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2db8…e042backed Sonego40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2075061.7%463 W · 287 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Shang59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.538947.3%184 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c60…2227backed Sonego40c49.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9910532.4%34 W · 71 L-10.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-29.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed Sonego42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e80…56c5backed Sonego42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9f3…2795backed Shang61c47$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.11771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+29.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x262d…33ddbacked Sonego43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021263.7%135 W · 77 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12dc…5c52backed Sonego43c46.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbaa…59b8backed Shang58c42.62$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.932548%156 W · 169 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Shang58c41.52$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.442,44451.3%1,254 W · 1,190 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Sonego42c34.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.451,24533.9%422 W · 823 L-5.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0483…483bbacked Shang58c32.76$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.766955.1%38 W · 31 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1421…51d1backed Shang62c32.34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.34450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c82…05cfbacked Shang55c27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1510755.1%59 W · 48 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf693…584dbacked Shang59c25.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.423574.3%26 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3d4…6297backed Shang64c25.35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.216144.7%72 W · 89 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2953…2ed5backed Shang58c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.535051.1%179 W · 171 L+0.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Shang64c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.914947.7%71 W · 78 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Sonego43c24.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5388455%486 W · 398 L+37.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c80…aa9abacked Shang64c22.3$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.023151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f89…b87ebacked Shang57c20.28$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.725660.7%34 W · 22 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.