Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x386a155bb7e78321d88129964009c6228b81f0171c53dd42f92cd7cff93ef2ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dplus KIAof Dplus KIA, FURIA Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5286…0d47backed FURIA Esports | 35c | 5,000$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,749.98 | 276 | 37.3%103 W · 173 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked FURIA Esports | 28c | 3,500$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.99 | 421 | 49.2%207 W · 214 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Dplus KIA | 72c | 1,554$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.22 | 1,806 | 39.1%707 W · 1,099 L | -30.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ee…fe5dbacked Dplus KIA | 65c | 1,538$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.46 | 353 | 53.5%189 W · 164 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…218ebacked Dplus KIA | 65c | 1,538$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x118c…3fffbacked Dplus KIA | 71c | 1,508$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb29f…45b5backed Dplus KIA | 65c | 1,500$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.99 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…38d3backed FURIA Esports | 35c | 1,243$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 564 | 32.1%181 W · 383 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad1…9198backed FURIA Esports | 29c | 1,235$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.15 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe548…a9febacked FURIA Esports | 28c | 1,132$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.58 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked FURIA Esports | 26c | 1,126$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.78 | 133 | 36.8%49 W · 84 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5217…ec29backed Dplus KIA | 65c | 914.92$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.22 | 211 | 54.5%115 W · 96 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Dplus KIA | 73c | 821.92$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.92 | 89 | 67.4%60 W · 29 L | +13.6wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4031…c848backed FURIA Esports | 31c | 799.99$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…4389backed Dplus KIA | 65c | 750$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 660 | 59.8%395 W · 265 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked FURIA Esports | 34c | 736.06$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.26 | 297 | 38.7%115 W · 182 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed FURIA Esports | 29c | 694$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.96 | 2,362 | 32%755 W · 1,607 L | +42.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cba…3ec4backed Dplus KIA | 66c | 606.06$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.06 | 1,545 | 43.7%675 W · 870 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Dplus KIA | 73c | 583.7$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.6 | 697 | 41.5%289 W · 408 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…23c2backed FURIA Esports | 30c | 550$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…ea90backed Dplus KIA | 65c | 527.69$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.95 | 1,110 | 49%544 W · 566 L | +42.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb71…4371backed Dplus KIA | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 165 | 46.1%76 W · 89 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04ab…5315backed FURIA Esports | 30c | 499.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Dplus KIA | 73c | 410.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 1,007 | 47.9%482 W · 525 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Dplus KIA | 69c | 362.32$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 650 | 63.2%411 W · 239 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…eb2dbacked Dplus KIA | 73c | 342.47$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.47 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ca…8f43backed Dplus KIA | 73c | 336.42$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.83 | 206 | 44.7%92 W · 114 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Dplus KIA | 70c | 324.3$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.29 | 1,047 | 50.3%527 W · 520 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…cfc5backed Dplus KIA | 70c | 299.2$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.2 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…4dc8backed Dplus KIA | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 283 | 51.6%146 W · 137 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…84aabacked Dplus KIA | 69c | 249$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.19 | 379 | 50.9%193 W · 186 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Dplus KIA | 73c | 241.37$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed FURIA Esports | 37c | 233.44$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.37 | 1,385 | 45.1%625 W · 760 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed Dplus KIA | 66c | 230$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 566 | 50%283 W · 283 L | -14.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0e…8177backed Dplus KIA | 65c | 229.6$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.6 | 682 | 53.5%365 W · 317 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Dplus KIA | 69c | 216.65$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.65 | 406 | 45.6%185 W · 221 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked FURIA Esports | 35c | 202$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 373 | 43.4%162 W · 211 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e7…1e46backed Dplus KIA | 70c | 182.38$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.71 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked FURIA Esports | 35c | 168$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 447 | 43.6%195 W · 252 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c23…418bbacked Dplus KIA | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Dplus KIA | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Dplus KIA | 63c | 148.74$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 1,593 | 43.8%697 W · 896 L | -74.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2b…20e4backed Dplus KIA | 70c | 145$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked FURIA Esports | 27c | 139.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…5fafbacked Dplus KIA | 71c | 133.18$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 567 | 44.8%254 W · 313 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe224…4907backed Dplus KIA | 69c | 128.68$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 66 | 71.2%47 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11ca…2737backed Dplus KIA | 71c | 125.23$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 112 | 64.3%72 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…315ebacked FURIA Esports | 31c | 121.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf023…3cc4backed Dplus KIA | 72c | 110.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b77…6ba1backed FURIA Esports | 34c | 104.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2176…b83dbacked Dplus KIA | 70c | 103.06$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2458…bd24backed FURIA Esports | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…97b4backed Dplus KIA | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 677 | 63.4%429 W · 248 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b0…b4d1backed Dplus KIA | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…a099backed Dplus KIA | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d4…6663backed Dplus KIA | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8812…c41abacked FURIA Esports | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 255 | 51.4%131 W · 124 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16f1…e1d1backed FURIA Esports | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 392 | 51.3%201 W · 191 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b6…1903backed Dplus KIA | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 201 | 53.7%108 W · 93 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd2…648cbacked Dplus KIA | 63c | 91.03$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 950 | 48.5%461 W · 489 L | +26.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c78…aad1backed Dplus KIA | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 1,251 | 54.1%677 W · 574 L | -29.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe83…5c7fbacked Dplus KIA | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -12.1wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed FURIA Esports | 35c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd4…c870backed Dplus KIA | 71c | 69.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cef…dbcbbacked Dplus KIA | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa73a…27d9backed Dplus KIA | 67c | 54.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 396 | 52%206 W · 190 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed FURIA Esports | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 376 | 50%188 W · 188 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9283…4277backed Dplus KIA | 71c | 48.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked FURIA Esports | 38c | 46.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 343 | 57.1%196 W · 147 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…e9d8backed Dplus KIA | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 200 | 57%114 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Dplus KIA | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 797 | 45.8%365 W · 432 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…30aebacked Dplus KIA | 71c | 22.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Dplus KIA | 65c | 22.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 395 | 55.2%218 W · 177 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Dplus KIA | 73c | 20.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 746 | 37.9%283 W · 463 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d5…79ddbacked Dplus KIA | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…761bbacked Dplus KIA | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b4…2329backed Dplus KIA | 70c | 15.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Dplus KIA | 70c | 14.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 2,508 | 39.8%999 W · 1,509 L | -76.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Dplus KIA | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: FURIA Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group ADplus KIA won
- LoL: FURIA Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 WinnerDplus KIA won
- LoL: FURIA Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 WinnerDplus KIA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.