MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38834ceaa0b0ad9505e5f9d0e7fd84c0976f61dec968057994f227abcbd12c3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 58c | 10,060$5,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,226.23 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 42c | 8,868$3,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,758.79 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 60c | 2,483$1,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,482.47 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 48c | 1,705$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.11 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 36c | 1,497$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.01 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 1,187$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.64 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b20…3ab0backed Over | 56c | 1,129$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.82 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 78c | 1,055$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.52 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 68c | 898$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.83 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 45c | 772.28$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.01 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8840…f51abacked Under | 2c | 743.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 62c | 655$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.22 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 520.57$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.14 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 45c | 463.34$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 54c | 432.16$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.79 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…284abacked Under | 14c | 415.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 43c | 391.91$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.52 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 58c | 379.5$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.39 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 46c | 263.44$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 45c | 231.67$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 56c | 229.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.6 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 59c | 186.55$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 59c | 186.55$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a6…1adcbacked Under | 59c | 186.44$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Over | 55c | 107.27$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Under | 43c | 98.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 42c | 97.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Under | 70c | 67.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 54c | 66.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 56c | 64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Over | 56c | 58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 35c | 54.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…697dbacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 47.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 42c | 44.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 30c | 44.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 52c | 43.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 52c | 34.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 52c | 33.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 42c | 28.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 61c | 25.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 52c | 24.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 63c | 21.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ae…76c6backed Over | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Over | 59c | 18.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 74c | 15.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 3.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.