MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2a13b5ed6042b495225e0c33e441d0920bf8624d44e1243d91a5157d85ddece
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 66c | 5,683$3,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950.99 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…1840backed Over | 20c | 5,089$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 80c | 2,722$2,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.69 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b20…3ab0backed Over | 34c | 2,503$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.93 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 66c | 2,480$1,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.2 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 36c | 1,505$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.94 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 1,199$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.79 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 33c | 1,159$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.47 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 42c | 1,000$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.25 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 8c | 930$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 35c | 835.28$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.48 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 49c | 616.98$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.66 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 24c | 557$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.13 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Over | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 29c | 495$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.55 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 33c | 472.03$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.77 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24a6…1adcbacked Under | 79c | 378.44$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 20c | 339.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 67c | 337.4$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.2 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 26c | 331.92$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.67 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 67c | 320.9$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.9 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 37c | 204.2$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 50c | 199.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.1 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 33c | 133.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.27 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 26c | 103$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 78c | 99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 41c | 95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 65c | 90.55$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Under | 66c | 83.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 140 | 64.3%90 W · 50 L | +11.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…5862backed Over | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Under | 72c | 71.79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72fa…e334backed Over | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Under | 65c | 57.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 55c | 56.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 56.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Over | 41c | 52.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 66c | 52.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Under | 70c | 47.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 52c | 40.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed Over | 31c | 40.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 33c | 40.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5a…669bbacked Under | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Under | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 52c | 27.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecf…8554backed Under | 51c | 22.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Under | 66c | 20.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Under | 66c | 17.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -8.9wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 3.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.