MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ca2a55874d0a682cbed1a3cbb169573ae48dc7d28675006e6aeb8334d5ebf2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Yankees | 59c | 7,201$4,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,240.26 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs | 26c | 6,495$1,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,783.06 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 71c | 5,442$3,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,869.07 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 27c | 4,090$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,995.91 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Chicago Cubs | 30c | 3,458$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,407.2 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed New York Yankees | 24c | 1,243$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.04 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed New York Yankees | 59c | 1,194$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.8 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked New York Yankees | 70c | 1,024$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.8 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 999.99$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.92 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed New York Yankees | 71c | 985.88$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.76 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed New York Yankees | 59c | 855.8$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.06 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Chicago Cubs | 26c | 819$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.06 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed New York Yankees | 55c | 661.66$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.91 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked New York Yankees | 48c | 340.14$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.27 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked New York Yankees | 69c | 308.36$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.65 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago Cubs | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked New York Yankees | 60c | 201.66$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.14 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed New York Yankees | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Chicago Cubs | 33c | 199$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.81 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Chicago Cubs | 59c | 190.07$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked New York Yankees | 25c | 169.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs | 27c | 147.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.89 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…284abacked New York Yankees | 45c | 131.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked New York Yankees | 59c | 119.4$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Yankees | 70c | 114.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.94 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…cc48backed New York Yankees | 70c | 110.33$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.23 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Chicago Cubs | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed New York Yankees | 50c | 96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435e…f153backed Chicago Cubs | 30c | 86.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Cubs | 29c | 83.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.32 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 71.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Chicago Cubs | 47c | 70.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed New York Yankees | 59c | 59.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Chicago Cubs | 34c | 57.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked New York Yankees | 55c | 56.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed New York Yankees | 68c | 41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed New York Yankees | 69c | 28.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Chicago Cubs | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 53c | 21.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Chicago Cubs | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed New York Yankees | 68c | 18.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed New York Yankees | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Yankees | 71c | 14.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 3.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.