Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38a1a3af8f99e342610be8aa2b4c9b86a1ea422fb469b9b9dcf06e70fc7f0afc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 37c | 674.91$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.83 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 624.95$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.24 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 32c | 600.32$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 18c | 498.35$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.38 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 68c | 373.69$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.25 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 29c | 364$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 39c | 345.32$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.99 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 61c | 330.84$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 41c | 310.66$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.89 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 51c | 306.83$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.85 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 286.23$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 247.77$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.56 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 223.82$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.91 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 197.28$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 194.04$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 167.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 61c | 163.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.57 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 59c | 162.54$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 73c | 160$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 13c | 157.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 151.37$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed No | 74c | 148.5$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 72c | 138.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 10c | 136.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 136.7$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 135.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…485fbacked Yes | 41c | 133.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 132.72$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 125.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee08…ca2ebacked Yes | 55c | 110$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 102.04$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 49c | 101.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c12…b8d3backed No | 69c | 99.65$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 12c | 91.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 54c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e9…8070backed Yes | 14c | 89.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 50c | 80.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 28c | 73.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 18c | 71.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed No | 55c | 64.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 63.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 43c | 56.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec34…b109backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 45.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 73c | 45.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 43.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 40.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 73c | 38.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 60c | 30.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 45c | 27.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…c740backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…943ebacked No | 50c | 27.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 54c | 26.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 17.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 74c | 16.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.