Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f9cc959052e5f1570267ac350ecfbb0fea836605c4373faf88ff8c7ad621f8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 43c | 804.44$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.68 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 2c | 655.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 31c | 641.08$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.78 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 47c | 628.27$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.27 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 395.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 54c | 393.15$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.55 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 342.17$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x769e…13f0backed No | 58c | 294.97$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 247.78$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 45c | 222.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.33 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 14c | 208.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 182.14$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.77 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee08…ca2ebacked No | 56c | 178.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.41 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 160.6$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.11 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 58c | 139.3$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…485fbacked Yes | 45c | 133.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 133.28$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 55c | 131.78$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 113.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.88 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 57c | 112.86$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.87 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed No | 54c | 112.58$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 107.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 104.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 61c | 98.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.09 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 44c | 88.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 38c | 88.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 36c | 88.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 40c | 79.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 36c | 75.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 42c | 71.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 71.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed No | 54c | 70.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 67.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 66.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 76c | 65.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 61c | 65.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec34…b109backed Yes | 44c | 59.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 55.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 47c | 53.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 74c | 52.44$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 41c | 50.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 48.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 48.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 50c | 47.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 43c | 46.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 42.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 55c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 52c | 30.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed No | 41c | 29.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 42c | 25.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 53c | 25.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked No | 54c | 24.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 56c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…7e54backed No | 53c | 23.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 22.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 51c | 20.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x577e…3756backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked Yes | 78c | 13.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.