TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Roland Garros WTA: Ann Li vs Diane Parry

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Diane Parryof Ann Li, Diane Parry
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$249,988
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$296,470

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $249,988 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 226 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cb…28adbacked Ann Li52c28,952$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,00010444.2%46 W · 58 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Diane Parry33c22,680$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,179.7936346.8%170 W · 193 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5af4…a7dfbacked Diane Parry29c11,665$3,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,262.365030%15 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b91…06c4backed Ann Li39c10,256$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0009138.5%35 W · 56 L+0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Diane Parry61c9,517$5,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,711.4421944.3%97 W · 122 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4be1…aa70backed Diane Parry36c9,210$3,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,937.610246.1%47 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Diane Parry56c7,495$4,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,291.379,03836.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L-196.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked Diane Parry56c7,000$3,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,091.365332.1%17 W · 36 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-32.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Ann Li71c6,908$4,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,878.871,68350.6%851 W · 832 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Ann Li61c6,455$3,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,927.764,97538.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L-19.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82a…a759backed Diane Parry29c5,620$1,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,989.9833955.2%187 W · 152 L+18.2wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Ann Li70c5,292$3,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,706.256757.1%324 W · 243 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fa0…be6dbacked Diane Parry38c4,843$1,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,013.185536.4%20 W · 35 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dfe…a5d6backed Ann Li70c3,571$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50050458.9%297 W · 207 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x710c…78eabacked Ann Li69c3,426$2,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,354.681,04058.2%605 W · 435 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Diane Parry69c3,424$2,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.062,32652.1%1,213 W · 1,113 L+85.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Diane Parry52c3,205$1,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,540.9811,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Diane Parry76c2,497$1,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.856,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa84…5756backed Ann Li58c2,080$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,206.3130%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6982…a165backed Diane Parry50c2,001$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.0863556.7%360 W · 275 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d96…7c16backed Ann Li71c2,000$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,419.998045%36 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef46…b0eabacked Ann Li44c2,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.9939438.1%150 W · 244 L-16.4wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Diane Parry51c1,998$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.415,42256.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L+231.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Ann Li72c1,992$1,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,431.313,31948.4%1,605 W · 1,714 L-52.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x780a…84f0backed Ann Li72c1,890$1,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,361.123366.7%22 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Ann Li45c1,639$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.154,25345%1,912 W · 2,341 L+20.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed Ann Li23c1,626$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.2941060.5%248 W · 162 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bd2…fa7fbacked Diane Parry36c1,510$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.1913050.8%66 W · 64 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+20.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc38…d22bbacked Diane Parry59c1,500$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6156167.2%41 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Ann Li65c1,455$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.083,71145.3%1,680 W · 2,031 L-6.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Ann Li61c1,441$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.768,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Ann Li52c1,362$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.983,72642.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L-48.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Ann Li33c1,305$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43647234.7%164 W · 308 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Diane Parry29c1,207$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.871,88145.7%860 W · 1,021 L+51.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Diane Parry62c1,197$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.2392145.2%416 W · 505 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Diane Parry29c1,168$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.241,88344.8%843 W · 1,040 L+36.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Ann Li71c1,138$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.621,83253%971 W · 861 L-45.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ann Li60c1,104$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.928,70242.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L-165.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a89…df4bbacked Ann Li70c1,100$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77014657.5%84 W · 62 L+12.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8c95…8a0bbacked Ann Li47c1,046$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.3810655.7%59 W · 47 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc23d…82c8backed Ann Li22c1,036$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.8116258.6%95 W · 67 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36b4…d723backed Diane Parry36c1,000$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64019146.6%89 W · 102 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed Diane Parry62c985.68$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.5613843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Ann Li67c983.15$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.081,96043.8%858 W · 1,102 L-20.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe4…d0f1backed Ann Li71c910.1$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.567157.7%41 W · 30 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd306…463dbacked Ann Li72c906.58$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6507660.5%46 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Diane Parry62c887.31$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.994,60267.8%3,119 W · 1,483 L+309.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Ann Li57c865.58$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.474,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3957…35f0backed Ann Li73c821.92$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60017572%126 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Ann Li68c815.95$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.91,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Diane Parry40c812.95$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.961,37138.3%525 W · 846 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Ann Li15c781.98$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.116,79236.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x57fe…13c1backed Ann Li52c773.29$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.1110044%44 W · 56 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Ann Li34c760.22$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.734,76049.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L+176.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Ann Li41c741.37$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.711,24041.2%511 W · 729 L-2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Diane Parry28c700$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50423429.9%70 W · 164 L-1.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Ann Li64c699.99$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.991,10252.2%575 W · 527 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e02…b178backed Ann Li4c662.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.063349.6%32 W · 302 L-16.7wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-48.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1af…c4d1backed Ann Li71c657$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.478045%36 W · 44 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+63.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked Ann Li75c647.42$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.2875543.4%328 W · 427 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf54c…e6ccbacked Ann Li12c583.33$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706025%15 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Diane Parry28c566.69$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.021,51537.7%571 W · 944 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Ann Li70c540.6$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.4214849.3%73 W · 75 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Ann Li73c540.54$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.591,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Ann Li71c537.99$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.333,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Ann Li67c522$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.747,75347.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L+39.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa902…d159backed Ann Li49c512.5$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.39per pick59cpaid-70.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5370…84adbacked Ann Li79c506.33$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006650%33 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Ann Li14c500$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.561,43728.5%409 W · 1,028 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21b5…1db6backed Diane Parry61c491.79$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.828562.8%179 W · 106 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Ann Li4c488.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.551,2078%96 W · 1,111 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+80.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Ann Li67c417$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.467,18349.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L+112.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Diane Parry29c416.82$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.042,20436.9%813 W · 1,391 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f07…9d0fbacked Diane Parry61c400$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15670752.8%373 W · 334 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd46e…d10dbacked Ann Li11c400$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4458931.1%183 W · 406 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Ann Li59c377.47$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.691,02843.3%445 W · 583 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17be…e5b4backed Diane Parry53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.366749.3%33 W · 34 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Diane Parry61c359.99$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.82,83947.2%1,340 W · 1,499 L+38.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Ann Li69c345$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.742,27542.7%972 W · 1,303 L+33.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Ann Li56c333.55$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.641,35443.9%595 W · 759 L-62.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Diane Parry30c333$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.110221.6%22 W · 80 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+35.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Ann Li56c327$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.622,09944.5%935 W · 1,164 L-51.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Ann Li67c306.19$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.152,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Diane Parry62c293.5$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.532,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Diane Parry27c285.56$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.4685634.2%293 W · 563 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdae6…7d39backed Diane Parry31c284.88$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.883542.9%15 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f57…3e7abacked Diane Parry33c282.88$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.5385057.5%489 W · 361 L+0.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Ann Li71c281.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030053.7%161 W · 139 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Diane Parry28c280.79$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.795,32528.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L-21.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked Ann Li47c278.47$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.1855243.3%239 W · 313 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92c8…45f6backed Diane Parry55c263.56$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.9422544.4%100 W · 125 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Diane Parry30c258.22$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.7578536.1%283 W · 502 L+36.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Ann Li40c255$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.81,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc52…dfcebacked Diane Parry61c249.95$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.486541.5%27 W · 38 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8adc…7a1bbacked Diane Parry30c246.49$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.497512%9 W · 66 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c0a…73e1backed Ann Li7c237$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.53366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+33%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7fd…0dedbacked Ann Li44c229.88$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.153537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Diane Parry59c227.65$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.711,05655.4%585 W · 471 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Ann Li67c225.93$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.051,42555.1%785 W · 640 L+23.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4702…5d04backed Diane Parry62c220.95$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.968937.1%33 W · 56 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.