TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
HANJIN BRIONof KT Rolster, HANJIN BRION
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$81,891
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$87,300

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,891 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe015…6ffdbacked HANJIN BRION44c17,443$7,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,759.296948.6%471 W · 498 L+12.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa4d…0bd2backed HANJIN BRION42c9,505$3,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,513862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked KT Rolster58c8,760$5,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,080.6725547.5%121 W · 134 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed KT Rolster56c8,010$4,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,476.591,32038.6%510 W · 810 L-66.0wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed HANJIN BRION42c8,000$3,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,64059854.2%324 W · 274 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee46…faa0backed KT Rolster58c7,117$4,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,128.024626.1%12 W · 34 L-9.3wins-0.20per pick46cpaid-26.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked HANJIN BRION45c5,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,749.9950040.8%204 W · 296 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x282f…7c4ebacked KT Rolster55c4,376$2,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,407.0414842.6%63 W · 85 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed KT Rolster56c4,078$2,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,283.6864943.1%280 W · 369 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed HANJIN BRION50c3,958$1,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,984.1221248.6%103 W · 109 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…eb43backed HANJIN BRION44c3,710$1,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,077.6785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.35per pick51cpaid+64.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed KT Rolster56c3,705$2,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,074.846450.6%235 W · 229 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2627…fa13backed HANJIN BRION46c3,076$1,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,653.5112040.8%49 W · 71 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed KT Rolster57c2,888$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,639.663746.5%296 W · 341 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64c4…1018backed HANJIN BRION56c2,182$1,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.9533153.2%176 W · 155 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed KT Rolster51c2,121$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,081.711,46961.4%902 W · 567 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb0…57e0backed HANJIN BRION45c2,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1007664.5%49 W · 27 L+8.5wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+24.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed KT Rolster44c1,863$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.6370641.5%293 W · 413 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd052…563dbacked KT Rolster56c1,500$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8408253.7%44 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0df…d4d5backed KT Rolster55c1,462$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.171266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90e7…ac8ebacked KT Rolster55c1,455$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80015042.7%64 W · 86 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+13.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x03c6…3dd2backed HANJIN BRION44c1,136$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.361866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+28.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed KT Rolster37c1,024$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.461,42838.4%548 W · 880 L-42.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed KT Rolster56c999.99$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.9965047.4%308 W · 342 L+24.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe410…d4d1backed KT Rolster56c999.99$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.9915751.6%81 W · 76 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x234c…2eeabacked KT Rolster56c999.99$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked HANJIN BRION78c976.32$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.8314949%73 W · 76 L-13.6wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-18%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked KT Rolster56c925$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51848243.2%208 W · 274 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked KT Rolster53c800.58$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.2164849.8%323 W · 325 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed KT Rolster46c798.12$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.141,61643.8%708 W · 908 L-74.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked KT Rolster50c794.38$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.892,98444.5%1,329 W · 1,655 L-94.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0160…1224backed HANJIN BRION45c734$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.723940.2%96 W · 143 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb797…e779backed HANJIN BRION45c700$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.859354.8%51 W · 42 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed HANJIN BRION42c640.24$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.3496254.3%522 W · 440 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed KT Rolster72c602.07$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.422,54039.7%1,009 W · 1,531 L-79.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked KT Rolster53c600.49$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.9230049.7%149 W · 151 L-1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f4…148cbacked KT Rolster55c597.78$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.783046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09b2…a017backed KT Rolster54c589.09$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.1147347.4%224 W · 249 L+23.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed HANJIN BRION46c573.89$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.930447.4%144 W · 160 L-0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb39b…9826backed KT Rolster55c562.04$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.123040%12 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xafbe…cfffbacked HANJIN BRION45c537.42$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.581353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x418a…1b82backed HANJIN BRION45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2755354.7%29 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+21.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed KT Rolster54c499.98$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.9962949.9%314 W · 315 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc14…1d66backed KT Rolster52c421.92$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.44736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e03…27bfbacked KT Rolster56c401.79$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2251127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.27per pick54cpaid-53.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed HANJIN BRION51c400.95$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.541,14338.8%444 W · 699 L-46.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39c9…7debbacked KT Rolster56c400$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2247454.1%40 W · 34 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked HANJIN BRION44c400$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2241,21954.5%664 W · 555 L+52.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed HANJIN BRION41c387.42$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.581,11748.8%545 W · 572 L+40.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ddc…9c0fbacked HANJIN BRION41c386.14$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.8221944.3%97 W · 122 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e91…391dbacked KT Rolster53c350.25$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.631631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick43cpaid+46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4d4…3f96backed KT Rolster41c345.66$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.725343.4%23 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d80…e49fbacked KT Rolster56c344.77$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.073826.3%10 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe1f…c18fbacked KT Rolster47c339.39$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.445729.8%17 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x63c0…780ebacked KT Rolster57c316.31$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.33956.4%22 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed HANJIN BRION45c311.11$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.1127251.1%139 W · 133 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked KT Rolster59c300$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17741146.5%191 W · 220 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed HANJIN BRION43c299.98$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.9964753.9%349 W · 298 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b2f…ff10backed KT Rolster59c282.88$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.92642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda29…f4b8backed KT Rolster53c276.49$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x179d…26abbacked KT Rolster55c276.31$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.4954329.8%162 W · 381 L-19.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7b8…31e6backed KT Rolster40c270$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10826743.8%117 W · 150 L+15.2wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12d3…42e4backed HANJIN BRION46c260.87$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.8726641%109 W · 157 L-1.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8b9…7a6bbacked KT Rolster43c250$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10818447.8%88 W · 96 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed HANJIN BRION56c240.96$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.121,00454.5%547 W · 457 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed HANJIN BRION44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.2757449.7%285 W · 289 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70aa…eee2backed KT Rolster48c209.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaad1…172ebacked HANJIN BRION48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.333857.9%22 W · 16 L+5.3wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+23.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked HANJIN BRION45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11036446.4%169 W · 195 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14e7…2b03backed KT Rolster57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1142060%12 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed HANJIN BRION45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11050954.8%279 W · 230 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16f1…e1d1backed HANJIN BRION49c199.99$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10239851.3%204 W · 194 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed HANJIN BRION33c199.97$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.981,26542.8%541 W · 724 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb41e…db27backed KT Rolster53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005747.4%27 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9c1…026dbacked KT Rolster55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007254.2%39 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x536e…4fd5backed HANJIN BRION44c170.25$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.3437151.2%190 W · 181 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf247…d8cabacked HANJIN BRION46c166.55$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.9416760.5%101 W · 66 L+19.6wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+23.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4ec6…db1ebacked KT Rolster53c162.26$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked HANJIN BRION45c160.13$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.0738950.9%198 W · 191 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa042…cba4backed KT Rolster52c158.33$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.638247.6%39 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeca9…1799backed KT Rolster24c154.87$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1725046%115 W · 135 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed KT Rolster50c143.99$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.542,24037.3%836 W · 1,404 L-31.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a74…de59backed HANJIN BRION43c143.79$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.963063.3%19 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+22.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d8a…24c2backed HANJIN BRION44c136.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.729154.9%50 W · 41 L+9.7wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+25.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6af0…fea7backed KT Rolster56c123.64$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2410256.9%58 W · 44 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a14…be99backed KT Rolster53c113.21$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601450%7 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5993…470dbacked KT Rolster38c110$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.41361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaf8…27cfbacked KT Rolster56c107.14$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf012…1a19backed KT Rolster56c105.36$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5938534.8%134 W · 251 L-1.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4ae…8eadbacked KT Rolster55c102.22$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.224740.4%19 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed KT Rolster46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462,52147.3%1,193 W · 1,328 L-34.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d9f…0c25backed HANJIN BRION60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4031052.3%162 W · 148 L+30.1wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+29.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8059…f1f3backed KT Rolster55c99.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9924848.4%120 W · 128 L-14.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa514…9c8fbacked HANJIN BRION77c90$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.715753.5%84 W · 73 L+0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x203a…935fbacked KT Rolster56c89.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014362.2%89 W · 54 L+10.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1e7…f2e5backed HANJIN BRION45c88.89$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.899150.5%46 W · 45 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed KT Rolster39c83.59$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.619342%81 W · 112 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked HANJIN BRION45c80$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4417042.9%73 W · 97 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked KT Rolster58c80$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.41,50250.3%756 W · 746 L+71.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde5e…9a9bbacked HANJIN BRION52c80$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.89150.5%46 W · 45 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+22%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.