TailMyPicks
Market

Lol · resolved market

Games Total: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,829
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,833

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,829 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1660…5598backed Over32c5,050$1,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4349250%46 W · 46 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Under68c4,980$3,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,386.3625946.7%121 W · 138 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed Over28c2,955$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,121.270641.5%293 W · 413 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under73c784.27$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.891,42838.4%548 W · 880 L-42.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cd2…7f85backed Under75c664.08$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-49.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Under75c572.72$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.242,98444.5%1,329 W · 1,655 L-94.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9179…2f34backed Under56c352.23$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.237662%233 W · 143 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Over46c330.64$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.171,00454.5%547 W · 457 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under15c272.05$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.712,23733.3%745 W · 1,492 L-71.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over31c230$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.756034.8%195 W · 365 L-14.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Under76c225.06$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.042,54039.7%1,009 W · 1,531 L-79.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Under69c189.23$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.5763751.2%326 W · 311 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Under39c174.69$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.62,02030.5%617 W · 1,403 L-172.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4b95…b23ebacked Under53c142.64$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.471,04944.6%468 W · 581 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1315…a84abacked Under53c138.21$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.258747.1%41 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x23b5…97e1backed Under41c81.2$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2926939%105 W · 164 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4dc2…698abacked Over47c80.85$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.859341.9%39 W · 54 L-13.0wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-22.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Under68c66.13$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1318450.5%93 W · 91 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under48c64$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.811,93135.9%693 W · 1,238 L-98.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Over47c62.11$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.071,61643.8%708 W · 908 L-74.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb35c…33c8backed Over56c61.04$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.043256.3%18 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Under50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040543.7%177 W · 228 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under54c58.1$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.592,52147.3%1,193 W · 1,328 L-34.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x098d…6cc2backed Under70c57.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.136350.8%32 W · 31 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-17.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Under52c48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7241141.6%171 W · 240 L-17.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb4d…975bbacked Under52c38.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.882055%11 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4e3e…637cbacked Under70c35.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252564%16 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under51c35.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1330049.7%149 W · 151 L-1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under57c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2521544.7%96 W · 119 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c34…1e74backed Under69c21.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6bf…9ac0backed Over65c17.63$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.222250%11 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under75c13.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109357%53 W · 40 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.