Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ae4a16b12fc8c2b1f1c566582d1b5ea2d3b00d3724f9115b505f2a179e135ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 55c | 792.37$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.69 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 360.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 45c | 326.66$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 63c | 300$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.07 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 42c | 292.22$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.48 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 55c | 238.54$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.4 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 66c | 229.22$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.39 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 213.16$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 49c | 179.26$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 49c | 166$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.23 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 69c | 164.11$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.97 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 156.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 53c | 141.38$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.45 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 42c | 129.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked No | 42c | 125$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 103.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 48c | 102.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 67c | 101.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 60c | 99.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 47c | 98.26$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 15c | 85.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 81.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 51c | 80.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 57c | 78.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 15c | 73.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 40c | 71.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 53c | 69.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 65.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 43c | 65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 65c | 64.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 45c | 62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 35c | 60.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 25c | 57.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 75c | 56.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 47c | 55.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 52c | 55.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 22c | 54.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 27c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b84…6e9bbacked Yes | 77c | 51.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 46c | 51.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 40c | 51.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 72c | 50.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 47c | 47.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed No | 46c | 47.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 45c | 46.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 35.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 66c | 33.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 67c | 33.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 40c | 31.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 52c | 30.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 68c | 28.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 47c | 27.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb11…6147backed No | 48c | 27.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…d4c9backed Yes | 39c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 42c | 25.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa210…a235backed No | 45c | 25.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83bb…b01fbacked Yes | 55c | 23.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 56c | 22.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…ad52backed Yes | 54c | 21.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c25…963dbacked Yes | 52c | 20.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2873…1ebdbacked No | 53c | 20.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…fc9bbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 54c | 19.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 66c | 19.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 69c | 14.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.