Fifa International · resolved market
Will Australia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b0c3a4f0ee9905b21c5b659e85716dc2ecfd27d41298462ff220604effcb92e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 463.6$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.04 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 12c | 357.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf18…17b5backed Yes | 58c | 346.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 134 | 37.3%50 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 42c | 234.85$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.21 | 302 | 41.4%125 W · 177 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 11c | 216.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 341 | 51%174 W · 167 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.82 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 41c | 182.16$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.47 | 157 | 40.8%64 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 63c | 176.99$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.31 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7e…28ddbacked Yes | 40c | 155$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 178 | 28.1%50 W · 128 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 135.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.94 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 135.17$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked No | 60c | 122$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 252 | 44.8%113 W · 139 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48d9…db94backed Yes | 14c | 86.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 43c | 82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 345 | 54.2%187 W · 158 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 43c | 80.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 1,075 | 45.2%486 W · 589 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 37c | 80.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 722 | 47.2%341 W · 381 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb842…330ebacked Yes | 40c | 72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 69.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 802 | 25.7%206 W · 596 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 54c | 64.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 235 | 43%101 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd74c…e70bbacked Yes | 54c | 58.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 57c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefdc…a595backed Yes | 57c | 44.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 54c | 36.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…0776backed Yes | 57c | 36.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 33.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 218 | 37.2%81 W · 137 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf858…d80bbacked Yes | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Australia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?this page
- Will Australia be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Australia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?No won
- Will Australia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Yes won
- Will Australia be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.