NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c9ebb0eedf58aa6509444c7e2518d04b6edd0ea0efcc39a9599da7f2b2d0cd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 46c | 1,321$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.66 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 1,129$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.83 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 509 | 54.8%279 W · 230 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 39c | 894.48$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.98 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 58c | 703.3$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.46 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 58c | 608$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.92 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 563.7$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.39 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 39c | 389.33$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.84 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Over | 42c | 380.95$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 41c | 300.19$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.54 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 43c | 222$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.48 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 60c | 201.29$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.71 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 197.12$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.75 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 32c | 189.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8778…73febacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over | 34c | 176.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 45c | 146.78$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.18 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 8c | 131.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Under | 62c | 130$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081f…9fcdbacked Under | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x974e…c090backed Under | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.24per pick | 55cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 42c | 114.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Under | 55c | 111.48$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Under | 65c | 109.1$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 248 | 46.8%116 W · 132 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 58c | 102.56$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2386…1a2dbacked Under | 78c | 97$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939a…2f45backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 62c | 88.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Under | 58c | 87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 183 | 39.3%72 W · 111 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 55c | 81.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 463 | 46.4%215 W · 248 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ff…c93fbacked Under | 59c | 76.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Under | 60c | 75.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 226 | 48.2%109 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…f54cbacked Under | 61c | 73.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ce…5ce8backed Under | 61c | 73.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 38c | 73.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Over | 22c | 71.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 38c | 71.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…9406backed Under | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 46c | 62.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 51c | 62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd125…f654backed Under | 61c | 59.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 38c | 54.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Over | 47c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 48c | 46.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…95c1backed Under | 71c | 45.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a35…2c0bbacked Under | 60c | 41.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0463…6976backed Under | 61c | 40.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa75d…1d45backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 223 | 47.1%105 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7797…78d3backed Under | 62c | 37.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed Under | 65c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 61c | 34.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…027abacked Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x745e…5975backed Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…0e40backed Under | 61c | 31.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 54cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Under | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…978abacked Under | 61c | 27.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x050f…6b27backed Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2b…b91fbacked Under | 79c | 24.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd1…5490backed Under | 72c | 21.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7895…896cbacked Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 61c | 19.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9374…8d7fbacked Under | 62c | 17.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5this page
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 31.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. MavericksTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.