NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6686f6c02456a613ffe035bad66c3b8a0c3326bdedd96053f6d70b5d0e32c52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Timberwolves | 50c | 21,685$10,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,892.59 | 398 | 42.5%169 W · 229 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Mavericks | 50c | 20,034$10,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,016.75 | 461 | 45.6%210 W · 251 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Mavericks | 50c | 11,541$5,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,770.5 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Timberwolves | 50c | 10,542$5,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,274.48 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Mavericks | 51c | 7,676$3,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,876.38 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 245 | 49%120 W · 125 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 49c | 3,883$1,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,913.21 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…e6c9backed Timberwolves | 52c | 2,980$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.4 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Timberwolves | 50c | 2,923$1,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.34 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Timberwolves | 50c | 1,698$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Mavericks | 49c | 452.69$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.82 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Timberwolves | 51c | 434$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.66 | 193 | 50.3%97 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Mavericks | 48c | 342.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.64 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Mavericks | 49c | 333.98$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.65 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Mavericks | 54c | 317.19$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.28 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Timberwolves | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 641 | 39%250 W · 391 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Mavericks | 51c | 294.06$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.77 | 311 | 55%171 W · 140 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…b325backed Timberwolves | 52c | 258.1$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.98 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Mavericks | 54c | 240.73$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…9bc9backed Timberwolves | 50c | 216.83$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.42 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Mavericks | 53c | 138.42$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…f10abacked Timberwolves | 51c | 124.9$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Timberwolves | 54c | 110.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Timberwolves | 52c | 107.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Mavericks | 55c | 100.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…c706backed Timberwolves | 45c | 100.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…492bbacked Timberwolves | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Mavericks | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 49c | 97.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3518…c4aebacked Timberwolves | 51c | 78.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Mavericks | 50c | 77.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Mavericks | 50c | 73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Timberwolves | 50c | 72.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Mavericks | 46c | 71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c6…5004backed Timberwolves | 50c | 51.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Timberwolves | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8f…386cbacked Mavericks | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Mavericks | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Timberwolves | 50c | 39.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 216 | 45.8%99 W · 117 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Mavericks | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…13d8backed Timberwolves | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Mavericks | 54c | 25.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Mavericks | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…0c83backed Timberwolves | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 193 | 46.1%89 W · 104 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)this page
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 31.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. MavericksTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.