NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9efcc0d37ed7c3a086affb8258da7fc1e3e835279f4860122d6ff3b198de68ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Over | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,899.99 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Under | 52c | 4,808$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,307.69 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 4,559$2,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,234.45 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843c…126cbacked Over | 53c | 3,681$1,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950.77 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 3,581$1,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,897.78 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 46c | 527$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.92 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 51c | 465$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.85 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 48c | 399.99$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.99 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Under | 54c | 277$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.42 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 35c | 155$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Under | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 311 | 55%171 W · 140 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…b325backed Over | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e9…5112backed Under | 51c | 96.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 217 | 49.3%107 W · 110 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 62c | 96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 21c | 96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 51c | 92.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Over | 58c | 75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 53c | 49.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Over | 49c | 48.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 51c | 39.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Over | 48c | 34.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…223dbacked Under | 52c | 31.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…24d2backed Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2c…0e63backed Under | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe8…e59ebacked Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Under | 53c | 26.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…3234backed Under | 54c | 24.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…afafbacked Under | 54c | 21.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5this page
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 31.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. MavericksTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.