NBA · resolved market

Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x934e1b2692c33b1070d0c3c69daff92b63d002a01e9c8dc992d12be548475998

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Mavericks
Resolved: Jan 29, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $75,302
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $75,746

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,302 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf559…f462backed Mavericks	55c	17,338$9,528 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,528.38	116	54.3%63 W · 53 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves	48c	12,527$5,956 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,570.69	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Mavericks	52c	8,000$4,160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,159.99	461	45.6%210 W · 251 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…88b4backed Timberwolves	48c	6,450$3,086 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,364.12	224	53.1%119 W · 105 L	+7.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35ac…92a7backed Timberwolves	51c	5,000$2,550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,449.99	121	44.6%54 W · 67 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec4…ce09backed Timberwolves	48c	4,620$2,218 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,402.4	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+104.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Timberwolves	45c	4,185$1,885 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,300.55	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Mavericks	50c	4,000$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	1,374	50.1%689 W · 685 L	+34.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Timberwolves	52c	3,882$2,018 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,863.26	143	58.7%84 W · 59 L	+12.9wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Timberwolves	50c	3,724$1,862 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,862.09	290	55.5%161 W · 129 L	+15.8wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Mavericks	49c	1,947$954 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$953.79	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Timberwolves	48c	1,813$870 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$942.5	269	49.1%132 W · 137 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Mavericks	48c	1,720$826 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$825.59	560	43.9%246 W · 314 L	-31.2wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb846…e02bbacked Mavericks	52c	1,700$884 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$884	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Timberwolves	51c	1,602$819 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$782.84	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Timberwolves	51c	1,593$815 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$777.66	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Mavericks	49c	1,574$768 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$768.09	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13b7…7a72backed Mavericks	52c	1,500$780 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$780	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mavericks	49c	1,467$719 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$718.76	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac54…6843backed Mavericks	52c	1,420$738 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$738.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Mavericks	49c	1,225$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600.25	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Timberwolves	52c	1,193$615 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$578.52	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Mavericks	52c	1,003$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	672	52.7%354 W · 318 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves	51c	733.95$372 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$362.08	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb123…0a15backed Timberwolves	56c	538$301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$236.72	99	44.4%44 W · 55 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Mavericks	45c	525$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.25	401	46.9%188 W · 213 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Mavericks	44c	512.8$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.15	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Timberwolves	54c	466.99$252 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$214.82	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Mavericks	50c	399.2$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.2	890	50.4%449 W · 441 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Timberwolves	46c	372.39$171 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$201.09	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Timberwolves	46c	341.45$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$183.14	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Timberwolves	48c	308.33$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160.33	623	47.5%296 W · 327 L	-17.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Mavericks	49c	250$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.5	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Timberwolves	48c	208.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.33	366	49.5%181 W · 185 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Mavericks	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	818	45.7%374 W · 444 L	+9.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Mavericks	48c	175.99$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.26	689	40.2%277 W · 412 L	-54.9wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9b71…9fcdbacked Timberwolves	50c	142$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Timberwolves	48c	128.88$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.02	382	53.4%204 W · 178 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Mavericks	50c	120.6$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.3	625	41.9%262 W · 363 L	-32.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-11%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Timberwolves	52c	116.5$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.92	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Mavericks	48c	100.51$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.93	397	36.3%144 W · 253 L	-27.0wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb405…c706backed Timberwolves	46c	89.26$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.2	149	49.7%74 W · 75 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Mavericks	50c	80$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	324	50%162 W · 162 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Mavericks	48c	80$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.4	451	46.1%208 W · 243 L	-10.4wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Mavericks	51c	78.41$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.99	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x938e…3fb0backed Timberwolves	52c	76.92$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.92	39	43.6%17 W · 22 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33c9…5124backed Mavericks	53c	75.47$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	503	51.5%259 W · 244 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e65…701cbacked Mavericks	50c	73.16$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.58	70	38.6%27 W · 43 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c04…2e2dbacked Mavericks	52c	64.81$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	506	48%243 W · 263 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Timberwolves	51c	55$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.95	1,634	48.1%786 W · 848 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a31…152cbacked Timberwolves	52c	51.44$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.69	484	51.2%248 W · 236 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Timberwolves	52c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.92	493	51.7%255 W · 238 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb9d…c3eebacked Timberwolves	49c	46.61$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.69	106	57.5%61 W · 45 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Timberwolves	50c	43$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.5	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Timberwolves	47c	41.88$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.04	357	47.1%168 W · 189 L	-8.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b7f…7aecbacked Timberwolves	48c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	436	47.9%209 W · 227 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c16…630fbacked Timberwolves	56c	41.07$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.07	48	54.2%26 W · 22 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3da1…c13bbacked Mavericks	49c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	421	46.1%194 W · 227 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cc9…185bbacked Mavericks	47c	38.65$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	292	47.9%140 W · 152 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fb4cbacked Mavericks	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	102	57.8%59 W · 43 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b37…d7e9backed Mavericks	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	119	38.7%46 W · 73 L	-10.3wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Mavericks	50c	37.42$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.63	1,029	47.7%491 W · 538 L	-13.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8677…4d2cbacked Mavericks	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	156	43.6%68 W · 88 L	-8.0wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0674…2034backed Timberwolves	47c	31.91$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.91	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+2.3wins	+0.17per pick	52cpaid	+24%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3494…04f4backed Mavericks	46c	29.78$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.7	350	49.4%173 W · 177 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb64…25e3backed Timberwolves	62c	28.92$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.92	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.4wins	-0.26per pick	49cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x788f…c351backed Timberwolves	56c	28.57$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.57	9	88.9%8 W · 1 L	+2.2wins	+0.24per pick	64cpaid	+38.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2984…57c8backed Mavericks	49c	27$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.23	58	51.7%30 W · 28 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f7…06c5backed Timberwolves	48c	26.67$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.87	177	50.8%90 W · 87 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves	50c	26.5$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.12	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Mavericks	54c	25.93$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	599	48.4%290 W · 309 L	-8.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc653…bb8cbacked Timberwolves	52c	24.58$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.8	409	60.6%248 W · 161 L	+7.2wins	+0.02per pick	59cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ed4…620ebacked Timberwolves	51c	23.56$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.52	311	55%171 W · 140 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f7f…8c81backed Mavericks	49c	22.45$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	105	51.4%54 W · 51 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Timberwolves	55c	21.55$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.71	576	57.8%333 W · 243 L	+13.0wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)this page
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 31.5No won
Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 4.5No won
Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 20.5No won
Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
Max Christie: Points O/U 16.5No won
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Timberwolves won
Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Timberwolves won
Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Timberwolves won
Timberwolves vs. MavericksTimberwolves won
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5Under won
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Under won
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5Under won
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Under won
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event