NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf16172b81377c12ec299d4c12365278357c5138e7729f5fd0be94b3397a48c09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Timberwolves | 60c | 8,937$5,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,575.96 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 42c | 7,092$3,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,012.34 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Timberwolves | 58c | 7,070$4,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,975.9 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Mavericks | 43c | 4,531$1,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,943.25 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 43c | 4,260$1,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,819.38 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a8…a48ebacked Timberwolves | 55c | 3,713$2,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,670.85 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mavericks | 45c | 2,681$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.45 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Timberwolves | 57c | 2,449$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.07 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Mavericks | 43c | 2,000$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcc…4324backed Mavericks | 45c | 1,300$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Mavericks | 41c | 999.47$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.83 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked Mavericks | 41c | 846.98$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.26 | 140 | 61.4%86 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Mavericks | 42c | 688.58$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.43 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Mavericks | 40c | 594.25$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.87 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Mavericks | 41c | 504$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.64 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad40…a697backed Timberwolves | 52c | 382.69$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.69 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Mavericks | 41c | 368$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.88 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Timberwolves | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Mavericks | 41c | 309.9$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.17 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Mavericks | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Timberwolves | 59c | 289.92$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.87 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Mavericks | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Timberwolves | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Mavericks | 43c | 193.5$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.62 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Mavericks | 45c | 171.18$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.36 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Mavericks | 45c | 154$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Mavericks | 50c | 129$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01de…a912backed Mavericks | 46c | 120.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 110.09$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Mavericks | 41c | 105$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Mavericks | 46c | 101.61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Mavericks | 45c | 101.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Mavericks | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…57c8backed Timberwolves | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Mavericks | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 271 | 44.3%120 W · 151 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Timberwolves | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…492bbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Mavericks | 44c | 99.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Mavericks | 42c | 88.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…3fb0backed Timberwolves | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…317fbacked Mavericks | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Timberwolves | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Mavericks | 43c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Mavericks | 51c | 51.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x050f…6b27backed Mavericks | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Mavericks | 41c | 43.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Mavericks | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba35…92bdbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 259 | 30.5%79 W · 180 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x788f…c351backed Timberwolves | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Timberwolves | 53c | 20.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde27…2a81backed Timberwolves | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd412…a150backed Timberwolves | 54c | 18.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)this page
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 31.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. MavericksTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.