Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cda227b820c2cf754cedad599ecb5e1285699618912fb930b50946164761fb5

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 28, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $152,750
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $151,843

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,750 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8372…5223backed Under	70c	104,258$72,981 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31,277.38	68	57.4%39 W · 29 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	29c	79,857$23,493 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23,492.57	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Over	30c	8,757$2,627 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,626.97	850	48.4%411 W · 439 L	+12.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Under	69c	7,499$5,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,299.82	138	52.2%72 W · 66 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over	30c	6,494$1,958 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,957.86	517	50.1%259 W · 258 L	+19.4wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Over	29c	4,309$1,242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,242.03	469	43.5%204 W · 265 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	18c	3,272$601 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600.91	4,744	41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L	+28.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…3931backed Over	32c	3,000$960 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$960	46	41.3%19 W · 27 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Over	20c	2,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	459	36.2%166 W · 293 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Over	24c	1,749$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$419.52	131	32.1%42 W · 89 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	16c	1,699$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.36	1,934	42.4%820 W · 1,114 L	-43.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Under	68c	1,500$1,020 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.16per pick	46cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Over	33c	1,500$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$494.88	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-4.1wins	-0.13per pick	44cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Over	32c	1,250$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	76	50%38 W · 38 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Over	27c	934.52$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	82	36.6%30 W · 52 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under	70c	885.51$616 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$269.07	1,283	48%616 W · 667 L	-5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x30a3…1943backed Over	35c	797.6$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.16	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over	30c	788.43$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.53	758	50%379 W · 379 L	+20.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb9a…412ebacked Over	32c	625.72$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	-4.1wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over	30c	623.97$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.92	524	54.2%284 W · 240 L	+14.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33a7…960dbacked Over	20c	558.51$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.7	239	26.4%63 W · 176 L	-10.5wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed Over	28c	531.72$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	354	28.5%101 W · 253 L	-20.1wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under	68c	526$358 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168.32	492	54.9%270 W · 222 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under	65c	519$337 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$181.65	373	42.6%159 W · 214 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Over	30c	505.23$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.57	607	28%170 W · 437 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	15c	500.73$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.7	1,409	44.5%627 W · 782 L	-6.0wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Over	20c	500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	109	39.4%43 W · 66 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Under	68c	499.97$340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.99	204	48.5%99 W · 105 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Over	32c	472.86$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	240	47.5%114 W · 126 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3cf…493bbacked Under	74c	400$296 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104	108	74.1%80 W · 28 L	+6.9wins	+0.06per pick	68cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Over	32c	382.34$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	194	26.3%51 W · 143 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Over	31c	358.03$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.4	234	35.9%84 W · 150 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b4…3500backed Under	70c	341.66$239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.5	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.40per pick	60cpaid	+69.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Over	31c	322.58$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	198	26.3%52 W · 146 L	-14.0wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Over	32c	312.5$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	73	56.2%41 W · 32 L	+6.3wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+13%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Over	31c	290.48$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.77	497	53.7%267 W · 230 L	+27.6wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over	18c	277.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	255	50.2%128 W · 127 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Over	30c	258.98$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.6	420	48.6%204 W · 216 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over	30c	250$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	964	43.7%421 W · 543 L	-10.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over	30c	250$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	1,074	45%483 W · 591 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Under	75c	216.61$162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.78	131	52.7%69 W · 62 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Over	36c	210.85$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	228	32.9%75 W · 153 L	-6.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over	27c	205.14$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	286	33.9%97 W · 189 L	+19.7wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+22%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Under	75c	201.54$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.57	163	57.1%93 W · 70 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Over	31c	184.22$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.81	207	58%120 W · 87 L	+11.9wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd164…f17bbacked Under	80c	183.35$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.67	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	64cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3247…eb6ebacked Over	32c	157.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-18%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked Over	32c	153.72$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.19	426	58%247 W · 179 L	+24.6wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd29…dab6backed Under	80c	125$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e1a…d5a3backed Over	10c	123.12$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.69	59	27.1%16 W · 43 L	-5.8wins	-0.10per pick	37cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Under	70c	120$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	282	42.2%119 W · 163 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under	69c	113$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.03	722	49.9%360 W · 362 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25ef…8e6fbacked Over	31c	101.88$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Over	33c	100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	208	19.2%40 W · 168 L	-7.7wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x60c2…8052backed Over	31c	100$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	93	39.8%37 W · 56 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x26b1…c3ddbacked Over	31c	100$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	+2.3wins	+0.11per pick	32cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x55e4…f67dbacked Over	32c	100$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	100	48%48 W · 52 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Over	30c	89.8$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.94	1,264	33.7%426 W · 838 L	+13.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Over	29c	87.03$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.24	232	58.2%135 W · 97 L	+13.9wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Under	68c	84.02$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.93	298	55%164 W · 134 L	+9.8wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Over	30c	83.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	203	36.9%75 W · 128 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5ba…960fbacked Under	66c	82.81$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.81	155	58.1%90 W · 65 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16f8…31e9backed Over	31c	81.45$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.25	50	44%22 W · 28 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7113…dba4backed Over	31c	80.65$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	408	41.9%171 W · 237 L	-8.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over	32c	79.41$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.41	1,224	42.3%518 W · 706 L	-27.6wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9637…a576backed Over	32c	78.13$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	144	31.9%46 W · 98 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8750…0841backed Under	71c	77.41$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.45	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	63cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under	71c	75.75$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.87	721	42.7%308 W · 413 L	+15.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	69c	72.46$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.46	277	48.7%135 W · 142 L	+5.9wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	30c	71.24$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.37	1,662	34.9%580 W · 1,082 L	-32.0wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x154d…99f9backed Under	69c	67.17$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.14	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5337…222bbacked Over	37c	57.13$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.14	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-3.6wins	-0.13per pick	39cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over	31c	52$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.99	1,615	53%856 W · 759 L	+33.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Over	31c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	87	31%27 W · 60 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0cf…6639backed Over	30c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x576c…f218backed Under	65c	50$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.5	207	63.8%132 W · 75 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	61cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3991…b6c7backed Over	30c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	91	52.7%48 W · 43 L	+5.3wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a28…eff6backed Over	31c	48.39$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-34%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa03…45e9backed Over	32c	47$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.88	28	25%7 W · 21 L	-6.0wins	-0.21per pick	46cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0xa87b…968bbacked Over	32c	38.69$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.38	92	31.5%29 W · 63 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc6c…2bf7backed Over	36c	36.89$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.28	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc253…5800backed Over	35c	34.71$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.15	105	50.5%53 W · 52 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Over	32c	32.71$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.62	108	48.1%52 W · 56 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa639…f5e8backed Over	32c	31.41$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	160	45.6%73 W · 87 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaab…aeacbacked Over	32c	31.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.18per pick	32cpaid	+71.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Under	69c	30$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.3	189	63%119 W · 70 L	+6.0wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Under	72c	24.74$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.89	46	58.7%27 W · 19 L	+2.9wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6301…74c6backed Under	70c	19.05$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.72	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf54…07e5backed Under	70c	14.95$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.49	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5this page
Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5Under won
Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5Under won
Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
Spread: Leeds United FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Leeds United FC won
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)Leeds United FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event