Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cf1486b0634e9c65c7d6a2299b9ee7905b40bcc8ce21875711ba2d942d73c23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 64c | 728.62$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.88 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 558.04$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 24c | 488.47$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.39 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 417.47$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc524…d113backed No | 74c | 331.58$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.96 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 35c | 312$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.12 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 35c | 282.76$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked No | 43c | 276.87$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.27 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 31c | 228.64$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 78c | 171.41$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 41c | 167.56$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.37 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 30c | 143.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 34c | 143$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 72c | 139.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 78c | 133.78$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 51c | 132.13$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 39c | 130$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 37c | 128.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 49c | 123.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3669…e0f0backed Yes | 67c | 120.14$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 58c | 119.51$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 106.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 104$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.22 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 53c | 91.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 50c | 87.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 73c | 82.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 81.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 81.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 47c | 72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 39c | 68.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked No | 62c | 68.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa873…6b47backed Yes | 49c | 60.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 35c | 57.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 56.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 59c | 54.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked No | 78c | 51.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 57c | 51.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 39c | 50.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 54c | 49.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d2…e95cbacked Yes | 52c | 48.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 75c | 46.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 44.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 54c | 43.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 74c | 43.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 41.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 41.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 49c | 40.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f70…133ebacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 28c | 39.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 34.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 31.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 66c | 30.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 65c | 30.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…7c21backed No | 74c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 58c | 26.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 24.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 73c | 24.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 57c | 21.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 53c | 20.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 59c | 17.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 67c | 15.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.