Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb58e5ebc2b614cd13a5e7885b5bebaecf04e8b0349f2016fdc3326cbfc5dd85c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed No | 55c | 1,948$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.08 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 42c | 1,008$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.34 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 44c | 913.08$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.96 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 42c | 639.27$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 43c | 548.76$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.59 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 49c | 523.4$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.23 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 472.07$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 58c | 380$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.05 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 317.27$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 45c | 277.27$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 18c | 258.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 45c | 252$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x947b…e64bbacked No | 57c | 187.72$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 186.93$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 166.33$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 65c | 154.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 44c | 153.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.11 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 57c | 148$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.02 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…5cf7backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 112.92$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 40c | 108.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.86 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked Yes | 47c | 105.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.73 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 98.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 60c | 97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 96.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 39c | 88.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 36c | 85.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.31 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 84.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 45c | 82.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 39c | 80.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 43c | 80.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 58c | 75.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 60c | 65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 59c | 63.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 42c | 63.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 40c | 61.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 59c | 54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 53.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 52.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 42c | 46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 44c | 45.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 39c | 45.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 68c | 44.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 53c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 63c | 41.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 54c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 58c | 35.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed Yes | 38c | 32.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea4…4990backed No | 67c | 32.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 43c | 32.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b4…624ebacked Yes | 38c | 30.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 54c | 23.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 59c | 20.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 49c | 20.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 59c | 20.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…576dbacked No | 67c | 17.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff12…0e11backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.