MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d342686db534b7f284cfb2bcc862279fc86e2b75d5c569b37e1949cdddef403
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 12,739$6,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,748.85 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Over | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,300 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Under | 55c | 2,727$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 2,500$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 1,458$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.84 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Under | 45c | 1,180$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.6 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…6623backed Under | 53c | 1,007$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.2 | 398 | 46.5%185 W · 213 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 52c | 960.58$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.5 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 46c | 710.74$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.67 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 47c | 675$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.25 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 48c | 555.41$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.81 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 533.13$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.56 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 48c | 499.99$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 47c | 478.71$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.72 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 47c | 474$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.37 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 64c | 410.16$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.23 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 47c | 390$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.7 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 48c | 374.52$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.75 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Over | 49c | 299.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.99 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 65c | 295$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.55 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 40c | 266.05$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.73 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 51c | 246.82$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.88 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Over | 62c | 196$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 54c | 183.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 34c | 179$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 51c | 160.68$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.95 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 47c | 149.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.49 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Under | 53c | 107$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.71 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 51c | 99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 45c | 85.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 46c | 77.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Over | 47c | 66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…667bbacked Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 50c | 50.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 54c | 49.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 50c | 44.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 43c | 38.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Under | 53c | 37.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…724dbacked Under | 51c | 31.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…950dbacked Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…ca40backed Over | 68c | 15.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 13.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 14.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 15.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.