Earnings · resolved market
Will T-Mobile US (TMUS) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3da7f71f1657137b4726636342ae7c35c3772ce362e45e1877b709107dfff9d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 33c | 1,353$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.53 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 66c | 516$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.3 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 32c | 400$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…303dbacked No | 37c | 320.47$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 63c | 314.64$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 31c | 299.95$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.98 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 32c | 285$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.13 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 68c | 230$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 65c | 153.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…5d91backed Yes | 69c | 140.43$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 64c | 131.05$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 24c | 108.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.66 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed Yes | 47c | 96.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed No | 36c | 87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…b479backed Yes | 66c | 82.23$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 31c | 77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 37c | 76.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4931…e11cbacked Yes | 69c | 70.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 64c | 50.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f38…36c1backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 170 | 64.1%109 W · 61 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 31c | 47.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe690…f448backed Yes | 69c | 42.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 65c | 33.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…f435backed No | 37c | 28.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb918…0158backed No | 37c | 28.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 70 | 12.9%9 W · 61 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd49…515dbacked Yes | 69c | 28.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac4…2956backed Yes | 69c | 28.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafd7…f634backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb957…549cbacked Yes | 69c | 19.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 55c | 19.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 64c | 18.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.