MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3db33f478c2b6d3a6f07f368a2850270466dd565dc8bdb00c55332c92503191a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 76c | 2,452$1,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.48 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 24c | 1,738$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.04 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…abdfbacked Under | 25c | 1,691$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.63 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0f…b9d0backed Under | 4c | 1,474$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 13c | 919.37$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.29 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 24c | 782.17$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.64 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 24c | 696.67$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.62 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 75c | 631.85$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.07 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 75c | 380$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked Over | 76c | 302.63$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.63 | 125 | 75.2%94 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Over | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 75c | 247.2$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 75c | 193.04$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 76c | 155.83$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 24c | 154.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 10c | 145.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 24c | 109.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…1809backed Over | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x465b…1419backed Over | 76c | 98.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 76c | 57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 75c | 40.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Over | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…5da6backed Over | 76c | 17.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay RaysDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 12.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.