TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Detroit Tigersof Detroit Tigers, Tampa Bay Rays
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,327
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,172

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,327 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9495…9a27backed Detroit Tigers52c12,080$6,302 inWon+$5,7782,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays48c5,466$2,615 inLost-$2,614.8211,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays47c4,368$2,052 inLost-$2,052.4410,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Tampa Bay Rays47c3,079$1,447 inLost-$1,447.31,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays51c1,982$1,012 inLost-$1,012.4512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Detroit Tigers54c1,522$816 inWon+$705.81,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Detroit Tigers50c1,200$600 inWon+$6005,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays10c643.55$66 inLost-$65.528,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Detroit Tigers55c498.95$275 inWon+$223.728,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x735a…df6dbacked Tampa Bay Rays41c219.98$90 inLost-$90.051526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.18per pick44cpaid-51.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf58…2bf4backed Detroit Tigers53c39.51$21 inWon+$18.7240148.1%193 W · 208 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Detroit Tigers74c32.21$24 inWon+$8.352,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Detroit Tigers61c29.13$18 inWon+$11.2672655.4%402 W · 324 L+40.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Tampa Bay Rays46c21.8$10 inLost-$10.0369447.6%330 W · 364 L-9.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb549…ae63backed Tampa Bay Rays51c21.24$11 inLost-$10.882138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-26.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x16f3…e1eebacked Detroit Tigers52c20$10 inWon+$9.611256.3%63 W · 49 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.