TailMyPicks
Market

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,391
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,778

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,391 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbfaa…2814backed No53c9,036$4,833 inLost-$4,832.59850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Yes46c3,707$1,705 inWon+$2,001.741,30150.2%653 W · 648 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes47c2,400$1,118 inWon+$1,28249650.2%249 W · 247 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Yes47c1,150$541 inWon+$609.7338453.6%206 W · 178 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes48c773.84$368 inWon+$405.838,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes47c498.2$234 inWon+$264.0516846.4%78 W · 90 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes50c304.99$152 inWon+$152.525249.2%124 W · 128 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes46c190$87 inWon+$102.61,53848.6%747 W · 791 L-5.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdae6…7d39backed No52c142.13$74 inLost-$73.914637%17 W · 29 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3f6…bab8backed No51c117.65$60 inLost-$6013951.8%72 W · 67 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes47c105$49 inWon+$55.6548653.7%261 W · 225 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Yes49c100$49 inWon+$511,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed No50c100$50 inLost-$5027045.9%124 W · 146 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcc0…6872backed Yes48c99.99$48 inWon+$5214549%71 W · 74 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Yes48c99.99$48 inWon+$5255146.8%258 W · 293 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a8…eb4ebacked No52c96.15$50 inLost-$507444.6%33 W · 41 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Yes48c50.29$24 inWon+$26.151,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62f9…ae42backed Yes50c50$25 inWon+$257962%49 W · 30 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Yes51c40$20 inWon+$19.66,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc064…6fa8backed No51c35.29$18 inLost-$1818151.9%94 W · 87 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Yes49c35$17 inWon+$17.8595041.5%394 W · 556 L-48.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x89b7…fd93backed Yes50c30$15 inWon+$158241.5%34 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1d8…cf06backed No52c28.85$15 inLost-$151643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes59c18.97$11 inWon+$7.861,14948.9%562 W · 587 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.