MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68b93ed6c1fb093002789a40a11b448f4dca3ca6f1802b49821d9f6ab1eaaa2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Detroit Tigers, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 49c | 5,128$2,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,533.15 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Detroit Tigers | 50c | 1,924$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.71 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Detroit Tigers | 60c | 1,628$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.01 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Detroit Tigers | 14c | 1,536$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,321.16 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Detroit Tigers | 52c | 835.69$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.89 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Detroit Tigers | 52c | 835.4$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.6 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Detroit Tigers | 47c | 626.66$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.94 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b3…49f8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 551.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 503.73$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.56 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Detroit Tigers | 57c | 421$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.75 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Detroit Tigers | 53c | 358.13$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.32 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Detroit Tigers | 53c | 333$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.51 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Detroit Tigers | 26c | 329.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.73 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…df6dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 239.81$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.18 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Detroit Tigers | 53c | 208$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.76 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Detroit Tigers | 58c | 167.15$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e59…a02cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 74c | 135.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Detroit Tigers | 15c | 113.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.34 | 167 | 46.7%78 W · 89 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Detroit Tigers | 53c | 112.08$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Detroit Tigers | 53c | 111.04$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c5…17e8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 105.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 102.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 49c | 78.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Detroit Tigers | 16c | 75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Detroit Tigers | 23c | 54.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 57c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ce…3273backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 44.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Detroit Tigers | 44c | 42.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 35.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 31.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Tampa Bay Rays | 48c | 31.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 29.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…8452backed Tampa Bay Rays | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Detroit Tigers | 49c | 24.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93dd…2f33backed Tampa Bay Rays | 72c | 19.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Detroit Tigers | 79c | 17.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay RaysDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 12.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.