MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4e0ecd577e5ed8476aab29e8e8a26865d6ef0ff27e664bb2af6349023e3b600
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Tampa Bay Rays, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 3,667$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers | 70c | 2,979$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.82 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 1,632$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Detroit Tigers | 70c | 893.34$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Detroit Tigers | 70c | 738.14$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.13 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 654.63$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.96 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Detroit Tigers | 70c | 651.72$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.94 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Detroit Tigers | 71c | 579.28$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.53 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 9c | 548.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 372.93$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.88 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Detroit Tigers | 70c | 230.23$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.07 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Tampa Bay Rays | 29c | 227.62$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Detroit Tigers | 71c | 200$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.57 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5a…07b6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26a7…4fbabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 89.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 27c | 86.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Detroit Tigers | 70c | 71.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 68.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Detroit Tigers | 70c | 60.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Detroit Tigers | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Detroit Tigers | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Detroit Tigers | 74c | 46.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Detroit Tigers | 74c | 46.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Detroit Tigers | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Detroit Tigers | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Detroit Tigers | 70c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay RaysDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 12.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.