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Tennis · resolved market

Cincinnati Open: Peyton Stearns vs Harriet Dart

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Peyton Stearnsof Peyton Stearns, Harriet Dart
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$61,191
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,616

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,191 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe524…d34fbacked Harriet Dart34c13,500$4,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,589.9222143.9%97 W · 124 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Peyton Stearns66c5,952$3,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,023.6864851.9%336 W · 312 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3cb…ac21backed Peyton Stearns66c2,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Peyton Stearns68c1,713$1,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.1655343.2%239 W · 314 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Harriet Dart14c1,707$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.881,60624.4%392 W · 1,214 L-41.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Harriet Dart10c1,689$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.124,30545%1,939 W · 2,366 L+20.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed Harriet Dart11c1,606$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.789897.9%78 W · 911 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Peyton Stearns66c1,515$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.1527553.8%148 W · 127 L+19.1wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfdd…e70ebacked Peyton Stearns66c1,500$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5101861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+35%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Harriet Dart30c1,363$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.3311,87743.3%5,143 W · 6,734 L+19.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Harriet Dart26c993$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.881,44742.8%620 W · 827 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Harriet Dart4c973$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.925,03138.5%1,939 W · 3,092 L-20.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e38…1b52backed Harriet Dart20c790$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15861924.4%151 W · 468 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd335…fe54backed Harriet Dart13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012733.1%42 W · 85 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda79…9050backed Harriet Dart13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014430.6%44 W · 100 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Harriet Dart20c680.41$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.084,40752.3%2,304 W · 2,103 L+66.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Harriet Dart15c680$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.656,70050.8%3,401 W · 3,299 L+267.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Harriet Dart2c634$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.684,70848.3%2,275 W · 2,433 L+36.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb624…3d80backed Harriet Dart17c603$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014439.6%57 W · 87 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Harriet Dart32c600.79$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.6795938%364 W · 595 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d98…fe98backed Harriet Dart13c576.92$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7516333.7%55 W · 108 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd212…1248backed Peyton Stearns78c525$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.552055%11 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x877f…8f3bbacked Peyton Stearns66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1704669.6%32 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe302…a986backed Peyton Stearns76c399.98$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9820241.6%84 W · 118 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Peyton Stearns67c357.97$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.133,77642.6%1,608 W · 2,168 L-44.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95c4…3d9bbacked Harriet Dart13c346.15$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454035%14 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f17…0724backed Harriet Dart13c332.57$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8478055.4%432 W · 348 L+52.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xed28…87cebacked Peyton Stearns66c309.09$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.09966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9538…96f4backed Harriet Dart13c307.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4012731.5%40 W · 87 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+1.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc1d7…47a4backed Harriet Dart31c306.45$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951,06040.8%433 W · 627 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf83b…44a2backed Harriet Dart33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10056241.5%233 W · 329 L+18.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Peyton Stearns67c298.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.562,54551.2%1,303 W · 1,242 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bb8…7017backed Harriet Dart34c294.12$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5312941.1%53 W · 76 L-8.6wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2688…9197backed Peyton Stearns66c293.7$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.0333658.3%196 W · 140 L+17.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5da…5fb9backed Harriet Dart13c230.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3013333.8%45 W · 88 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d9d…a555backed Harriet Dart13c230.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Harriet Dart14c218.32$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.939,44444.3%4,188 W · 5,256 L-249.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa448…3046backed Peyton Stearns66c209.91$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.371540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Peyton Stearns75c201.35$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.61,96043.8%858 W · 1,102 L-20.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4cf…0e95backed Harriet Dart11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226735.8%24 W · 43 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8101…663ebacked Harriet Dart13c195.48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258731%27 W · 60 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+16.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Harriet Dart14c193.71$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.123,75245.3%1,700 W · 2,052 L-2.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a08…46f9backed Harriet Dart13c192.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257929.1%23 W · 56 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ae…3a89backed Peyton Stearns66c179.11$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.96150.8%31 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Harriet Dart15c166.37$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.53,23857.3%1,854 W · 1,384 L+179.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Harriet Dart31c155.03$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6954047%254 W · 286 L-20.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbd7…1c4fbacked Harriet Dart13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016134.8%56 W · 105 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7e…c45cbacked Harriet Dart13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013733.6%46 W · 91 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Harriet Dart22c150$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.364745.9%297 W · 350 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdf15…a1febacked Harriet Dart34c147.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5021745.2%98 W · 119 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b94…09dcbacked Harriet Dart34c147.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506339.7%25 W · 38 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x661a…23debacked Harriet Dart8c131.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.52540%10 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c5c…1cf7backed Peyton Stearns68c124.99$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick66cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa78e…7cbcbacked Harriet Dart33c121.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402236.4%8 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+54.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd762…bb9ebacked Harriet Dart13c115.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1513739.4%54 W · 83 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb994…fad1backed Harriet Dart13c115.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510734.6%37 W · 70 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb720…da75backed Peyton Stearns67c112.74$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6646064.3%296 W · 164 L+24.9wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6f7…c7a2backed Peyton Stearns66c106.06$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.0631555.9%176 W · 139 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55e7…4fb9backed Peyton Stearns66c104$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3646453%246 W · 218 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Harriet Dart32c104$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.287,22749.7%3,591 W · 3,636 L+118.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa34e…29f8backed Harriet Dart24c102.04$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255523.6%13 W · 42 L-5.7wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-46.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Harriet Dart16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.581,94744%856 W · 1,091 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Harriet Dart33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332,05847.9%986 W · 1,072 L+16.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfaa…28f7backed Harriet Dart34c99.96$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9996645.5%440 W · 526 L+23.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe87…b9b6backed Harriet Dart13c97.46$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.675738.6%22 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a6a…56bdbacked Harriet Dart32c89.74$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.660341.1%248 W · 355 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Harriet Dart15c88.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.655,07541.5%2,104 W · 2,971 L-83.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b76…cc64backed Harriet Dart13c86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.183636.1%13 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x767e…98cabacked Peyton Stearns65c84.62$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6241161.6%253 W · 158 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Peyton Stearns70c84$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.52,36952.2%1,236 W · 1,133 L+87.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47ae…9ff0backed Harriet Dart13c80.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.526124.6%15 W · 46 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3a3…3f10backed Peyton Stearns66c80.8$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.475050%25 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3a0…359dbacked Peyton Stearns66c74.64$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.381747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Peyton Stearns66c66.59$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.642,45151.7%1,268 W · 1,183 L+11.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9527…f108backed Peyton Stearns67c65$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.354540.2%219 W · 326 L+40.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-6.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d10…b3d0backed Peyton Stearns66c61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8282659.3%490 W · 336 L+3.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee71…9204backed Harriet Dart36c56.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5803…3f3fbacked Harriet Dart18c56.19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.131,10948%532 W · 577 L+41.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bdc…e345backed Harriet Dart27c53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3117644.9%79 W · 97 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Peyton Stearns66c49.58$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.868,12750.8%4,126 W · 4,001 L+84.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe481…d138backed Harriet Dart34c47.49$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1528542.5%121 W · 164 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c5…8181backed Peyton Stearns66c45.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4583956.1%471 W · 368 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x00d9…b1b1backed Harriet Dart33c45.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1552935.9%190 W · 339 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed Harriet Dart35c45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7573045.3%331 W · 399 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2396…9485backed Peyton Stearns68c44.85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3527346.9%128 W · 145 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x125a…df71backed Peyton Stearns66c44.03$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.971,10449.7%549 W · 555 L+46.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ee3…2e6abacked Peyton Stearns66c40.91$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9129945.8%137 W · 162 L+20.6wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+21.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbe4…f12fbacked Peyton Stearns66c34.03$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5760565.5%396 W · 209 L+18.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3f9…45a7backed Peyton Stearns76c32.5$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.938766.4%257 W · 130 L+0.3wins0.00per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37b0…799fbacked Peyton Stearns70c31.54$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5420758.5%121 W · 86 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1b6…e0a0backed Peyton Stearns66c30.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.313363.2%84 W · 49 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcba8…11a2backed Peyton Stearns66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.210063%63 W · 37 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe49f…03acbacked Peyton Stearns68c29.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.429339.8%37 W · 56 L-11.3wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-30.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0b56…a082backed Peyton Stearns66c29.38$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9945864%293 W · 165 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…331cbacked Peyton Stearns70c28.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4939764.7%257 W · 140 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x602c…6951backed Peyton Stearns76c26.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.39837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-48.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Peyton Stearns79c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.241,63352.7%860 W · 773 L+13.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7734…017dbacked Peyton Stearns66c22.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6714859.5%88 W · 60 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33c4…85c2backed Peyton Stearns68c22.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.065056%28 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2a4…ffc4backed Peyton Stearns66c18.25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.252650%13 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.