Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
SMU Mustangs vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks: O/U 163.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e518cd054f790a4f26fa85e9ef7b171ccddaaa5169eaa5871c2f067463b8293
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,808 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Under | 52c | 11,193$5,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,772.87 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57de…cd90backed Over | 48c | 5,800$2,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,016 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 46c | 5,609$2,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,028.7 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ba…1e32backed Under | 51c | 3,920$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ef…dcb1backed Over | 49c | 3,886$1,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,981.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa59…75ecbacked Over | 47c | 3,031$1,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,594.58 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…6738backed Over | 48c | 2,051$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.83 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…77e2backed Over | 50c | 1,983$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.56 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d66…22d1backed Over | 48c | 1,487$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.19 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over | 45c | 1,471$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.03 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 1,322$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.21 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Over | 48c | 1,143$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.56 | 180 | 48.9%88 W · 92 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Under | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf638…aa50backed Under | 54c | 991.31$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.31 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…ffbebacked Under | 50c | 902.54$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.27 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 47c | 764.81$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.35 | 462 | 46.5%215 W · 247 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8188…b171backed Over | 49c | 748.03$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.49 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Under | 55c | 674.11$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.76 | 274 | 50%137 W · 137 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Over | 47c | 623.42$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.81 | 185 | 56.8%105 W · 80 L | +14.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 47c | 594.77$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.23 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked Under | 55c | 324.44$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.44 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Over | 48c | 268.47$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.6 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 51c | 267.57$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.97 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Under | 54c | 229.47$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.91 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 347 | 46.1%160 W · 187 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe610…044dbacked Over | 49c | 202.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…20dabacked Under | 55c | 198.27$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 55c | 167.88$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 53c | 158.61$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.06 | 218 | 50.5%110 W · 108 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…f574backed Over | 47c | 105.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 40c | 83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 528 | 43.6%230 W · 298 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 47c | 79.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 133 | 56.4%75 W · 58 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x261b…b32bbacked Under | 57c | 60.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…f122backed Over | 46c | 55.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +201%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee63…d18dbacked Under | 51c | 48.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Under | 52c | 45.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…f137backed Under | 57c | 43.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed Over | 48c | 42.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +10.0wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dc…ab58backed Over | 49c | 26.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 25.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 48c | 24.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 296 | 50.7%150 W · 146 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…a593backed Over | 46c | 21.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SMU Mustangs vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks: O/U 163.5this page
- SMU Mustangs vs. Miami (OH) RedHawksMiami (OH) RedHawks won
- SMU Mustangs vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks: O/U 155.5Over won
- SMU Mustangs vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks: O/U 157.5Over won
- SMU Mustangs vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks: O/U 158.5Over won
- SMU Mustangs vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks: O/U 161.5Over won
- SMU Mustangs vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks: O/U 162.5Over won
- SMU Mustangs vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks: O/U 164.5Over won
- Spread: Miami (OH) RedHawks (-1.5)Miami (OH) RedHawks won
- Spread: Miami (OH) RedHawks (-2.5)Miami (OH) RedHawks won
- Spread: SMU Mustangs (-1.5)Miami (OH) RedHawks won
- Spread: SMU Mustangs (-6.5)Miami (OH) RedHawks won
- Spread: SMU Mustangs (-7.5)Miami (OH) RedHawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.