Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Larne FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e52553e11a8a9943b7e054fda632c5e2d9c16e13d3b8d82ace5feb4beeebb7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tre Fiori FCof Larne FC, Tre Fiori FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Tre Fiori FC | 59c | 3,127$1,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,282.07 | 119 | 37.8%45 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Larne FC | 40c | 2,817$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.68 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +20.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Larne FC | 35c | 2,040$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.21 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tre Fiori FC | 59c | 1,260$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.82 | 230 | 31.7%73 W · 157 L | -18.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tre Fiori FC | 60c | 900$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.36 | 633 | 46.3%293 W · 340 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Larne FC | 41c | 900$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked Larne FC | 11c | 665.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Tre Fiori FC | 61c | 534.33$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.36 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -13.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Tre Fiori FC | 59c | 430.32$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.43 | 187 | 36.4%68 W · 119 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Larne FC | 42c | 385.9$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.08 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Tre Fiori FC | 58c | 306.91$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.9 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Larne FC | 15c | 293.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Larne FC | 10c | 285.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 467 | 41.5%194 W · 273 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Tre Fiori FC | 59c | 270.15$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.53 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Tre Fiori FC | 60c | 256$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.4 | 299 | 49.5%148 W · 151 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed Larne FC | 38c | 210.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.11 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -6.6wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Larne FC | 38c | 207$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 225 | 52%117 W · 108 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Larne FC | 41c | 180$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…d6c2backed Tre Fiori FC | 60c | 166.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.86 | 114 | 40.4%46 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Larne FC | 41c | 163.41$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Larne FC | 42c | 133.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 915 | 37.6%344 W · 571 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Tre Fiori FC | 60c | 117.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.48 | 154 | 48.7%75 W · 79 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Tre Fiori FC | 61c | 106.08$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Tre Fiori FC | 62c | 100.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 650 | 50.2%326 W · 324 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e68…fcb9backed Larne FC | 15c | 75.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Larne FC | 41c | 64.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 432 | 52.3%226 W · 206 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Tre Fiori FC | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…880ebacked Tre Fiori FC | 63c | 50.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +40%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc89b…d649backed Larne FC | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Larne FC | 22c | 46.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4548…e4b5backed Tre Fiori FC | 59c | 42.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Tre Fiori FC | 62c | 32.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 306 | 56.9%174 W · 132 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Larne FC | 41c | 31.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 381 | 42.8%163 W · 218 L | -22.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Larne FC | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Tre Fiori FC | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Larne FC (-2.5)this page
- Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: Larne FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: Larne FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: Tre Fiori FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: Tre Fiori FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Larne FC (-1.5)Tre Fiori FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.