Spread: Larne FC (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa864d060d0c1f1dbd30c1995727ce56758ad76e6afd884a701cea0b23dbfee53

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Tre Fiori FCof Larne FC, Tre Fiori FC
Resolved: Jul 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $30,804
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $32,073

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,804 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x076d…8d4cbacked Larne FC	64c	17,195$10,945 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,945.02	376	49.5%186 W · 190 L	+20.5wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Tre Fiori FC	36c	3,600$1,296 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,304	46	58.7%27 W · 19 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f7…1b34backed Larne FC	43c	2,124$919 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$919.13	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-2.3wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Tre Fiori FC	64c	1,794$1,146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$648.01	1,994	43.9%875 W · 1,119 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Tre Fiori FC	36c	1,440$518 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$921.6	25	60%15 W · 10 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Tre Fiori FC	36c	1,260$454 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$806.4	39	66.7%26 W · 13 L	+4.2wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Tre Fiori FC	36c	1,080$389 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$691.2	34	64.7%22 W · 12 L	+3.8wins	+0.11per pick	54cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Tre Fiori FC	38c	1,000$380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$620	361	42.4%153 W · 208 L	-13.1wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Tre Fiori FC	37c	810$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$510.3	403	50.9%205 W · 198 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Tre Fiori FC	37c	810$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$510.3	502	47.2%237 W · 265 L	-8.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Tre Fiori FC	37c	810$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$510.3	607	48.4%294 W · 313 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Tre Fiori FC	53c	774.11$410 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$364.58	915	37.6%344 W · 571 L	+30.7wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Tre Fiori FC	57c	724.49$413 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$311.89	446	47.3%211 W · 235 L	+12.1wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Tre Fiori FC	36c	695.48$251 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$444.6	633	46.3%293 W · 340 L	-21.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked Larne FC	31c	666$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.46	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-2.1wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Larne FC	66c	657.56$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436.42	99	47.5%47 W · 52 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Larne FC	64c	650$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416	1,511	40.2%608 W · 903 L	-6.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-16%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x40d0…4415backed Tre Fiori FC	36c	547$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$350.08	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Tre Fiori FC	36c	512$182 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$330.24	299	49.5%148 W · 151 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Larne FC	61c	498.28$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.78	114	43.9%50 W · 64 L	+4.4wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Tre Fiori FC	45c	487.74$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$267.88	723	35.5%257 W · 466 L	-28.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8987…02f3backed Tre Fiori FC	39c	481.23$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$293.55	38	34.2%13 W · 25 L	-6.6wins	-0.17per pick	52cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Tre Fiori FC	68c	444.85$304 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140.48	51	43.1%22 W · 29 L	-4.6wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8345…5cadbacked Larne FC	59c	406.05$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.57	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Tre Fiori FC	36c	360$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$230.4	40	70%28 W · 12 L	+4.9wins	+0.12per pick	58cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed Tre Fiori FC	36c	360$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$230.4	33	63.6%21 W · 12 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Tre Fiori FC	36c	360$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$230.4	68	58.8%40 W · 28 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Tre Fiori FC	36c	360$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$230.4	48	66.7%32 W · 16 L	+3.6wins	+0.08per pick	59cpaid	+18%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Tre Fiori FC	36c	352$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$225.28	40	67.5%27 W · 13 L	+3.9wins	+0.10per pick	58cpaid	+18%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed Tre Fiori FC	36c	345$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$220.8	37	70.3%26 W · 11 L	+4.5wins	+0.12per pick	58cpaid	+23.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Tre Fiori FC	37c	323$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$203.74	650	50.2%326 W · 324 L	-12.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Tre Fiori FC	69c	309.57$214 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.97	467	41.5%194 W · 273 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8492…f17cbacked Larne FC	65c	307.69$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Tre Fiori FC	38c	306$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$189.72	432	52.3%226 W · 206 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Tre Fiori FC	36c	288$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.32	53	66%35 W · 18 L	+4.2wins	+0.08per pick	58cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Tre Fiori FC	36c	288$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.32	52	57.7%30 W · 22 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked Larne FC	48c	285.99$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.28	35	31.4%11 W · 24 L	-3.8wins	-0.11per pick	42cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x702e…ff44backed Tre Fiori FC	36c	285$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182.4	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x800a…0b4dbacked Larne FC	54c	203.94$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-2.2wins	-0.10per pick	34cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Tre Fiori FC	54c	202.39$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.23	243	40.7%99 W · 144 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tre Fiori FC	36c	199.18$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126.49	230	31.7%73 W · 157 L	-18.8wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b78…473dbacked Larne FC	28c	196$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.88	73	64.4%47 W · 26 L	+3.4wins	+0.05per pick	60cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Tre Fiori FC	36c	194$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.16	153	49.7%76 W · 77 L	-7.0wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcb8…067cbacked Tre Fiori FC	37c	189$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.07	12	75%9 W · 3 L	+2.7wins	+0.22per pick	53cpaid	+35%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked Tre Fiori FC	36c	187.81$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.2	36	61.1%22 W · 14 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	57cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x361b…74febacked Tre Fiori FC	36c	186.83$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.57	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.64per pick	36cpaid	+177.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed Tre Fiori FC	36c	180$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.2	40	62.5%25 W · 15 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04a5…d093backed Tre Fiori FC	36c	180$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.2	30	63.3%19 W · 11 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	58cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Tre Fiori FC	59c	156.05$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.73	1,021	35.3%360 W · 661 L	-8.6wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b3e…0b87backed Larne FC	67c	150.75$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-1.8wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Tre Fiori FC	62c	145.27$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.34	328	43.6%143 W · 185 L	-10.8wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked Tre Fiori FC	36c	136$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.04	46	65.2%30 W · 16 L	+3.2wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+14%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Larne FC	49c	135.82$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.91	120	39.2%47 W · 73 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Larne FC	28c	121.96$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.15	87	42.5%37 W · 50 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42a1…a8e9backed Tre Fiori FC	72c	117.96$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.03	34	44.1%15 W · 19 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b5d…7501backed Tre Fiori FC	64c	102.06$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.74	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Larne FC	65c	100.01$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	381	42.8%163 W · 218 L	-22.9wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Larne FC	62c	100$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	225	52%117 W · 108 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Tre Fiori FC	38c	99.98$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.49	154	48.7%75 W · 79 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Larne FC	65c	86.79$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.03	59	47.5%28 W · 31 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa494…4a1fbacked Tre Fiori FC	36c	86$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.04	26	50%13 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Tre Fiori FC	70c	80$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.1	424	38%161 W · 263 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Tre Fiori FC	71c	79.44$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.07	308	56.8%175 W · 133 L	+11.6wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Tre Fiori FC	35c	61.19$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.78	520	46.7%243 W · 277 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Tre Fiori FC	36c	54$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.56	187	54.5%102 W · 85 L	+4.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d3b…28bdbacked Larne FC	64c	51.56$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	95	49.5%47 W · 48 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcc…031ebacked Tre Fiori FC	36c	50.81$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.52	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9565…ec9abacked Tre Fiori FC	64c	50.46$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.99	47	40.4%19 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1b77…6ba1backed Tre Fiori FC	41c	49.98$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.49	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1715…a049backed Tre Fiori FC	35c	45.82$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.6	101	51.5%52 W · 49 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	57cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed Tre Fiori FC	36c	45$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.8	149	42.3%63 W · 86 L	-8.0wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-15%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3968…85b5backed Tre Fiori FC	49c	43.22$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.83	16	75%12 W · 4 L	+4.0wins	+0.25per pick	50cpaid	+54.7%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x160c…185cbacked Tre Fiori FC	35c	37.79$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.73	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe29c…a31dbacked Larne FC	30c	35.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+3.1wins	+0.15per pick	42cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Tre Fiori FC	35c	33.54$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.8	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c9…6686backed Larne FC	59c	32.92$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.48	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4548…e4b5backed Tre Fiori FC	36c	31.62$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.34	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Larne FC	62c	24$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.88	97	48.5%47 W · 50 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Larne FC	64c	22.31$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.28	886	31.7%281 W · 605 L	-10.7wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6522…3a5abacked Larne FC	64c	20.52$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.16	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Larne FC (-1.5)this page
Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: Larne FC O/U 1.5Over won
Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: Larne FC O/U 2.5Under won
Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: O/U 0.5Over won
Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: O/U 5.5Under won
Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: Tre Fiori FC O/U 0.5Over won
Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: Tre Fiori FC O/U 1.5Under won
Spread: Larne FC (-2.5)Tre Fiori FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Larne FC (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event