Champions League · resolved market
Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x653431434c708e42b3fe0addeef0db17b54bc9ce6ca87a1588d4b2389233265c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a2c…100cbacked Under | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 2cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 16c | 2,340$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.07 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc827…ff0fbacked Under | 1c | 1,544$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 79c | 1,022$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.94 | 467 | 41.5%194 W · 273 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Under | 16c | 901$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.44 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 2c | 800$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 230 | 31.7%73 W · 157 L | -18.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 563.5$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.78 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 17c | 497.7$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.61 | 446 | 47.3%211 W · 235 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Under | 22c | 331$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.31 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 80c | 313.48$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.48 | 122 | 69.7%85 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 12c | 292.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 26c | 284.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +20.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 9c | 224.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 440 | 33.9%149 W · 291 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked Under | 26c | 200.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b99…8f62backed Over | 76c | 195.44$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 38c | 190.17$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 633 | 46.3%293 W · 340 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…d6c2backed Over | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 114 | 40.4%46 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 74c | 159$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -9.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Over | 64c | 157.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…7f11backed Over | 75c | 131.05$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 75c | 125$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Under | 14c | 117.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Over | 73c | 115$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 75c | 109$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…a02dbacked Over | 64c | 106.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Over | 62c | 103.23$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 38c | 101$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x819a…4b03backed Under | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 75c | 93.72$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 915 | 37.6%344 W · 571 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…fccabacked Over | 78c | 66.58$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 18c | 64.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 62c | 51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 650 | 50.2%326 W · 324 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…c118backed Under | 38c | 50.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 381 | 42.8%163 W · 218 L | -22.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Over | 73c | 44.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Over | 61c | 34.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Under | 38c | 33.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 60c | 33.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 297 | 46.5%138 W · 159 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 40c | 33.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 306 | 56.9%174 W · 132 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 114 | 64.9%74 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4548…e4b5backed Under | 38c | 30.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 63c | 27.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 77c | 27.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 62c | 26.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 432 | 52.3%226 W · 206 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Over | 71c | 19.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…bcb1backed Over | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: Larne FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: Larne FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: Tre Fiori FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC: Tre Fiori FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Larne FC (-1.5)Tre Fiori FC won
- Spread: Larne FC (-2.5)Tre Fiori FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.